[JustMatt]

Would love some feedback on B.Giles. Numbers were ok last year across board except power, does anyone see a resurgence to his old power numbers or because of Petco is 20-25 HR the best case scenario.

2006

575AB
.304 avg
.420 OBP
.925 OPS
24 HR
92 RBI
85 R
11 SB

[Jon KK]

Welcome to RJ Matt! My projections aren't much different from yours, a bit higher OBP and less HRs than you.

.300/.430 OBP, 90 RBI + R, 20 HR, 10 SB. (I wasn't intentionally rounding things off so much!)

[The Dane]

BGiles is in steep decline. His bat looked very sluggish last year and it wasn't just Petco.

He's a gamer and he's still an asset in the field, and his OBP will still be good, but his power is waning. But he is just the type of guy to reinvent himself. If he sees, accepts, and understands what is happening to his body, he may very well change his game. We could see him become his little brother, fewer HRs, maybe a few more SBs, lots of walks, power will come in short bursts, solid defense, strong leadership/motivation.

If I could get him cheap, I'd be happy to land BGiles, but I won't be going into the 20s.

[Trader Mac]

I think JonKK's projection is about right. I see his power continuing to decline but his avg, rbi's and runs will remain about the same.

[roadtrip68]

I don't see Giles declining at all from last year. The guy is a stud. Gets on base a lot. Great numbers for playing at that damn Petco Park.

[phantaciephreak]

Given his age, home ballpark and recent trends in his statistics, I dont think you can expect more than 15-18 HRs from him.

He is one of the best in the league in getting on base. Unfortunately, OBP is not a category in most leagues, so other than the potential to score more runs, its somewhat irrevelant.

One very encouraging stat is his average with RISP (.360 in 2005). Based on this number, even if he doesnt hit a ton of HRs, he should still drive in his fair share of runs.

Overall, Giles's numbers show that he's smart hitter....Combined that with talent, and you have typically have a productive fantasy player.

2006: .295 BA/17 HR/90 RBI/90 RUNS/10 SBs

[joncarlos]

Originally Posted by phantaciephreak

Overall, Giles's numbers show that he's smart hitter....Combined that with talent, and you have typically have a productive fantasy player.

2006: .295 BA/17 HR/90 RBI/90 RUNS/10 SBs

I think that's pretty close. I would say something like .290-15-90-95r-13sb with an OBP pushing (or topping) .400.

[The Evil Empire]

His biggest asset is his OBP. That makes him more valuable in points leagues. Age is aconcern here, how long does he keep putting up these type of numbers. His power is already in decline, this may cause him to chase pitches and therefor disrupt that high OBP. He is still a quality player but his elite days are over.
560 ABs
.290 Ba
.385 OBP
15 ht
80 RBIs
75 runs
8 SBs

[Flyman]

Checked the entire Bullpen and didn't see a thread on BGiles. Hopefully I didn't miss it.

Anyway, what to expect from Brian this season? I saw Rototimes has him projected at .296-18-87-12-94, which seems pretty likely. Rotowire is way out there...projecting him .294-28-112-12-118.

While I can't see him approaching Rotowire's numbers, I do believe that he'll again top 20 HRs. Last year was the first time since 1998 that he fewer than 20, but Petco could be draining what power he has left.

I'm thinking he'll probably go about .300-22-95-8-95. I question him cracking double-digits in SBs this season. He's 35, and he's never been a prolific basestealer anyway. Now, I will say that he has stolen 27/35 bases in 1258 ABs in San Diego. He had 66/91 in 3398 previous ABs...so apparently SD is running him more and with greater success.

Any thoughts and/or projections on the kind of year Brian will have?

[thatrogue]

Originally Posted by Flyman

Checked the entire Bullpen and didn't see a thread on BGiles. Hopefully I didn't miss it.

Anyway, what to expect from Brian this season? I saw Rototimes has him projected at .296-18-87-12-94, which seems pretty likely. Rotowire is way out there...projecting him .294-28-112-12-118.

While I can't see him approaching Rotowire's numbers, I do believe that he'll again top 20 HRs. Last year was the first time since 1998 that he fewer than 20, but Petco could be draining what power he has left.

I'm thinking he'll probably go about .300-22-95-8-95. I question him cracking double-digits in SBs this season. He's 35, and he's never been a prolific basestealer anyway. Now, I will say that he has stolen 27/35 bases in 1258 ABs in San Diego. He had 66/91 in 3398 previous ABs...so apparently SD is running him more and with greater success.

Any thoughts and/or projections on the kind of year Brian will have?

I believe that Giles projects to hit between 15 - 22 HRs this season, and I could see him adding another 5 - 10 SB. I'd split the difference and go with a 18 HR, 8 SB type season.

The SB to AB ratios you gave have not really changed pre-SD (2.68%) to with-SD (2.78%), but a more reasonable way to analyze this would be to look at SB Attempts/(Singles + Walks)...something Shandler refers to as stolen base opportunity. To be honest though, I don't know how useful that is in an overall evaluation of Giles because of a variety of factors (impact of injuries, team change, home park leading to different offensive philsophy, age & park related power decline leading to more singles and walks, etc.).

Giles SB success rate has gone up from 72.5% pre-SD to 77.1% with SD, but has fluctuated quite a bit during the past three seasons (perfect 4-4 in 2003, 10-13 in 2004, 11-16 in 2006). The bottom line is that his SB success rate fluctuations should not matter much, because he appears unlikely to have more than 15 or so SB attempts this year. That said, if he's at a 75% success rate, he'll provide 11 SBs and if he's only at 65% he'll provide 10 SBs. Like I said earlier, project somewhere between 5 and 10 SBs and you should be within reason.

[Jon KK]

Here's the other Brian Giles thread.