[John Mayberry]

File this under the "could be the best low dollar AL SP option at the end of your auction".

The Twins flat out stole the 22 year-old Liriano from the Giants. Depending on usage, he could hit the wall head on, but at 120 or so innings, there is a lot to like with Liriano's makeup.

Dominating stuff, he demonstrated great control and his numbers in his 24 inning stint last year were not reflective of just how well he performed. A .687 OPS against, 12.5 K/9, 4.7 K/BB and a 1.56 G:F ratio w/ a 5.70 ERA do not agree with eachother.

Sure, he could blow up in your face, but I'd try to get him on the late stages of your auction/draft and you could get a nice little return for a few scheckles.

[joncarlos]

shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!

[bwilk5000]

I doubt he'll be too far under the radar once things really spark up in February and March, especially on a site like this. I'm not saying he's going to be slotted 2nd or 3rd in anyone's rotation, but I don't think (though I hope) he will slip into the reserve rounds/dollar days of drafts/auctions. As your stats point out, John Mayberry, the talent is there and it seems capable of posting some solid numbers with an ERA about 2 runs lower than the 5.70 we saw at the end of '05. I think he could find himself in the teens as far as bid price in some leagues, which is something I'd still take a risk on given his strong peripherals.

[Moonlight J]

I have no doubts he is going to earn a double-digit return in 2006. My only concern with him is that he went from 40 injury plagued innings in 2004 to 190 in 2005.

High ground ball, high K/9 rate..me likey. Especially since I picked him up on my reserve roster last July for $2

[John Mayberry]

Originally Posted by bwilk5000

I doubt he'll be too far under the radar once things really spark up in February and March, especially on a site like this. I'm not saying he's going to be slotted 2nd or 3rd in anyone's rotation, but I don't think (though I hope) he will slip into the reserve rounds/dollar days of drafts/auctions. As your stats point out, John Mayberry, the talent is there and it seems capable of posting some solid numbers with an ERA about 2 runs lower than the 5.70 we saw at the end of '05. I think he could find himself in the teens as far as bid price in some leagues, which is something I'd still take a risk on given his strong peripherals.

Welcome to the Pen bwilk...

It really depends on several factors as to his final bid price, he very well could be a low dollar FAAB from last year and that's when I would approach his current owner and start discussing players and you could get him as a throw in for the deal. He'd really have to churn it out to get your money back if you are getting him in the teens.

[John Mayberry]

Originally Posted by Moonlight J

...me likey. Especially since I picked him up on my reserve roster last July for $2

Me likely too.

OK J, now that you're sitting on a $2 Liriano, what you would want/expect in return for him? Say that you have a SS need and I'll offer you a moderately price J Lugo and a $1 Rafael Betancourt for your Angel Berroa and Liriano.

Deal?

[Grinch]

My prediction--this is not a prediction of value--rather of 'going price'

AL only 1 year league: $7-11
AL only keeper league: $12-18
Mixed 1 year league: $3-4
Mixed keeper league: $6-9

based on a 12 team league.

This could change with a "lights-out' spring, or the Twins could really mess with some leagues by anointing him the 5th starter, but sending him to AAA for work till they need him in late April!

[Grinch]

Originally Posted by John Mayberry

Me likely too.

OK J, now that you're sitting on a $2 Liriano, what you would want/expect in return for him? Say that you have a SS need and I'll offer you a moderately price J Lugo and a $1 Rafael Betancourt for your Angel Berroa and Liriano.

Deal?

I wouldn't take it--Lugo is very likely to be traded, and if he goes to the NL would be worthless (I assume AL only), Betancourt is really only at most a $2-3 pitcher--given the trade risk I would want Berroa over Lugo, and Liriano over Betancourt.

[Moonlight J]

Originally Posted by John Mayberry

Me likely too.

OK J, now that you're sitting on a $2 Liriano, what you would want/expect in return for him? Say that you have a SS need and I'll offer you a moderately price J Lugo and a $1 Rafael Betancourt for your Angel Berroa and Liriano.

Deal?

I wouldn't touch Lugo as he is very likely to be dealt. Not to say I wouldn't trade Liriano (for those 4-5 of my local leaguemates who read here) but I would deal him to solidify some hitting.

[joncarlos]

I would say that a wild-ass guess for his numbers would be:

25 GS, 155 IP, 4.10/1.20, 170 K, 12-9 record.

[Grinch]

Originally Posted by joncarlos

I would say that a wild-ass guess for his numbers would be:

25 GS, 155 IP, 4.10/1.20, 170 K, 12-9 record.

I can see all those as fairly acurate except the record. A 4.10 ERA on the Twins is a .500 record at best--that team will have a problem scoring runs. Unless Liriano is lucky enough to get a fat chunk of starts against KC he'll be hard pressed to break .500.

[BuckyBuckner]

Originally Posted by John Mayberry

File this under the "could be the best low dollar AL SP option at the end of your auction for non keeper leagues".

fixed.

Let's be realistic, the only leagues that this guy goes cheap in are re-draft leagues and maybe 12 team mixed keeper leagues.

[Jon KK]

You don't want him! if you're in my league
Young SP like this are too inconsistent. but if you waver I'll snap him up
191 innings in 05 could be danger. as he blew through three levels
Way too many walks. but they couldn't hit him
Command could be an issue. KKKKKKKKKK...

[The Antijordan]

Originally Posted by Moonlight J

..me likey. Especially since I picked him up on my reserve roster last July for $2

Ditto. Except we fill out our reserve rosters on Auction Day.

[jalora]

I remember watching him pitch in San Jose. I also remember when he got hurt. That said, it appears his injuries are behind him. There's no way he wins 12 games for the Twins; I don't think Santana wins 12 with Tony Batista at third.

[joncarlos]

Originally Posted by jalora

I remember watching him pitch in San Jose. I also remember when he got hurt. That said, it appears his injuries are behind him. There's no way he wins 12 games for the Twins; I don't think Santana wins 12 with Tony Batista at third.

My thinking is that out of 25-26 starts, he'll be absolutely brilliant in about half of them, and win most of them 1-0 and 2-1 while losing a couple of them 1-0 and 2-1. He'll eke out a couple of 4-3 wins and have his share of 8-3 blowouts and frustrating 3-2 losses.

[GoodyAce]

I'm looking at Liriano's 2005 major-league numbers and they don't make any sense. 23 innings, 19 hits, 33:7 K:BB, and 15 earned runs? A 5.70 ERA to go with a 1.10 WHIP?

It's obvious that people will hesitate to take a chance on a rookie pitcher, but everything about those numbers suggests he'll have double-digit value in 2006. His stats give you the impression he gave up 19 hits, and 15 of 'em were HRs.

My question is whether he shows up this year throwing as well as he did in 2005.

[SharpTalons]

I have Liriano slated for 10 bucks (with 2 years remaining) in a 16 team, AL/NL League ($300 max. budgets). It seems like a no-brainer considering the alternatives.

[BC...]

Originally Posted by GoodyAce

I'm looking at Liriano's 2005 major-league numbers and they don't make any sense. 23 innings, 19 hits, 33:7 K:BB, and 15 earned runs? A 5.70 ERA to go with a 1.10 WHIP?

It's obvious that people will hesitate to take a chance on a rookie pitcher, but everything about those numbers suggests he'll have double-digit value in 2006. His stats give you the impression he gave up 19 hits, and 15 of 'em were HRs.

My question is whether he shows up this year throwing as well as he did in 2005.

He gave up 4HR...evidently timely ones to go with the walks...

[phantaciephreak]

If Liriano played in the Mariners system, he'd be dubbed at the best pitcher in the league for 2006 (according to Bod).........

Seriously though, I think he's the best pitching prospect in baseball behind Felix.

As others mentioned the crazy-high k/9 and solid G/F ratio is the recipe for success at the next level. I think his numbers could easily reflect those of Javier Vazquez (when he was with MTL).

Let's just hope he wins the 5th spot in the rotation over Baker.