[Baum Threat]

2005 - .304 / 32 / 101 / 110 / 21 in 598 AB's

Just a total bustout year for this kid who is now going to be 27 this year - so which way does he go in 2006? A repeat of 2005? A decline? Even better than 2005??

One thing is for sure - he will not come cheap

[LongGone]

I say he has a slightly better season in 06.

2006 - .298 / 37 / 115 / 103 / 13 steals in 580 AB's

You're right he won't come cheap but I think he'll be worth the money.

[J_roz]

I predict a similar season as last year, what makes his season so special is he had no protection in the line up.

[joncarlos]

He struck out 142 times, but actually increased his contact rate (70% in 2004, 76% in 2005). I worry that he can't sustain that kind of performance if he doesn't make better contact, but it hasn't bothered him yet. He's patient (95 walks) which is good because teams will be pitching around him if Craig Wilson is hitting in the 5 hole.

He's a great basestealer which helps for fantasy purposes because you know he almost always has the green light.

He's also actually a much BETTER hitter than people realize, because PNC is a tough park for right-handed power hitters (his 2004 splits are almost identical):

Home: .271-9-41-49r-11sb
Road: .337-23-60-61r-10sb

Age 27, 44 doubles, great speed, good eye, improving contact rate - the only real negative is the fact that there won't be a lot of people on base for him to drive in (except Casey, one of the slowest runners in baseball) since Duffy and Sanchez are likely to be the 1 snd 2 hitters.

I'll say: .285-39-105-95r-25sb

[norton17]

With the #'s you guys are projecting he's got to be in your top 10 for next year???

If he hits 39 HR and steals 25 bases then he should contend for #1 overall.

I just can't see taking him that high or even in the same tier as A-rod, Pujols, etc

[joncarlos]

Originally Posted by norton17

With the #'s you guys are projecting he's got to be in your top 10 for next year???

If he hits 39 HR and steals 25 bases then he should contend for #1 overall.

I just can't see taking him that high or even in the same tier as A-rod, Pujols, etc

He was 7th among all hitters last year according to Budmans. When you consider the pitchers too, he is still a top 15 pick and a first rounder in many leagues.

http://www.budmans.com/baseball/BB05/ML5fbVal.htm

1. ARod
2. DLee
3. Pujols
4. Papi
5. Tex
6. Manny
7. Bay
8. Crawford
9. MCabrera
10. Soriano

[joncarlos]

How about we do it this way:

Player A: .286-24-102-104r-31sb, 117 walks, 134 strikeouts
Player B: 304-32-101-110r-21sb, 95 walks, 142 strikeouts
Player C: .305-33-108-94r (zero steals), 79 walks, 123 strikeouts

Player B is obviously Bay and I don't think anyone would argue that he belongs with these other two players.. some might even say he is better than either. Player A is Bobby Abreu and Player C is Travis Hafner.

[Riff Raff]

Was Bay a big base stealer in the minor leagues?
Was Bay an efficient base stealer in the minor leagues?

The reason I ask is that his value is VERY highly tied to his ability, and propensity to steal bases. Take the SBs away, or even cut them in 1/2 - and his value lowers, significantly IMO. I'm a big fan, but some analysis on his actual base stealing prowess, speed, smarts, and effectiveness would alleviate my concerns about him deserving top 10 hitter status from a fantasy perspective.

[DMT]

Originally Posted by Riff Raff

Was Bay a big base stealer in the minor leagues?
Was Bay an efficient base stealer in the minor leagues?

The reason I ask is that his value is VERY highly tied to his ability, and propensity to steal bases. Take the SBs away, or even cut them in 1/2 - and his value lowers, significantly IMO. I'm a big fan, but some analysis on his actual base stealing prowess, speed, smarts, and effectiveness would alleviate my concerns about him deserving top 10 hitter status from a fantasy perspective.

I don't think he has blazing speed, but is just a very good baserunner, so he gets great jumps. IIRC, most of those steals came in the 2nd half, after his manager gave him the green light.

EDIT: I checked and 16 of his steals came after July 1st.

[Baum Threat]

Originally Posted by Riff Raff

Was Bay a big base stealer in the minor leagues?
Was Bay an efficient base stealer in the minor leagues?

The reason I ask is that his value is VERY highly tied to his ability, and propensity to steal bases. Take the SBs away, or even cut them in 1/2 - and his value lowers, significantly IMO. I'm a big fan, but some analysis on his actual base stealing prowess, speed, smarts, and effectiveness would alleviate my concerns about him deserving top 10 hitter status from a fantasy perspective.

Good questions Riff -

Let's take a look....

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...ason-bay.shtml

The twenty steals don't look like a fluke to me.

[DMT]

This thread is painful for me because I had Bay 2 years ago, but dropped him when the Pirates were jerking him around (i.e., 2-3 starts/week). Of course, when I tried to re-acquire him a couple weeks later, I got outbid by $1. So now my biggest rival has him as a $10 keeper.

[JohnR]

call me crazy, but I see a lot of what Brian Giles was to the Pirates in Jason Bay. I don't think he's a blazing fast runner, but he's mobile on the basepaths, much the same way Giles was. He could probably play all 3 OF positions, and goes way under the radar playing in Pittsburg. Obviously, he has age on his side, and might show a little improvement from '05 which still makes him a valuable commodity in fantasy, but I'd suspect his steals will tail off gradually over the next few years.

.280 36 HR 101 RBI 88 R 21 SB

[DJBeasties]

I Just read this on baseballnotebook.com about Jason Bay. What do you guys make of this arguement for a Bay decline?



Jason Bay: Someone sent a note for consideration to the "Ask David" in box recently that compared my projection for him for 2006 to insanity. I'm projecting a .263 season with 24 home runs, 81 RBI and 16 steals which, obviously, is much lower than the .306-32-101-21 season he posted last year. Let me offer a couple of factors here with the acknowledgement that my projection will likely look worse than most other projection sources. I mentioned recently that it's entirely possible for hitters with a low contact rate to have good batting averages but much of the drop in projected batting average is coming from the projected drop in contact rate. Bay had a contact rate of about 76% last year - that is, about 76% of his at bats ended with him putting the ball in play. One of the challenges a forecaster faces is determining whether a change from season to season represents a real, permanent change (i.e. an improvement or decline) or if a result could perhaps be the result of some change mixed with some natural deviation, which you can call luck for lack of a better term. Bay's contact rate in 2004 was just 69% and in the minors in 2003 and 2002, his translated contact rate was 71% and 72% respectively. I'm projecting a 2006 contact rate more in line with what he did from 2002-2004 and that's at the heart of the drop in projected batting average. As for the power, if you look at the projection, the projected drop when examined on a home runs per ball in play basis, is only slight. In any case, the projected drop in fantasy value is neither coming from the batting average nor the projected home runs. Rather, it's coming from two other key areas that have higher confidence levels. First, there is a much lower projected games total (149) than he played in 2005 and that's because he didn't miss a single game in 2005. Players who are coming off 162 game seasons, with rare exceptions (see Cal Ripken Jr. for the previous generation or Miguel Tejada currently) typically drop back and even if it's only 10 games, that can put a real dent in their projected value. Moreover, Bay has one other area that is simply unrepeatable and that is the stolen base total. If you look, you'll see he was successful in 21 out of 22 stolen base attempts. Even if he were to run at the same rate as he did in 2005, and that's unlikely as stolen base attempts typically decline as a player ages (even one who is only twenty-seven), it's almost impossible to sustain that sort of stolen base success rate over the long-term. Ironically, I think Bay has the speed to run much more but won't. That is, he's the sort of player who, if given the green light, could steal even more bases. However, if I'm right that he's not about to get a constant green light, let's pretend for a moment that he ends up with even the same number of stolen base attempts in 2006 as he did in 2005 (22). A great base-stealer would be successful in about 75-80% of those and that would drop his total to around 16-18 steals rather than the 21 he had. All of this may seem like nitpicking at the details but the details really do add up to create the overall picture of a forecasted player value where Bay still has much projected value but not near as much as he had last year. In short, I really like Bay as a player but I suspect there are many fantasy league types who like him a lot more than I do for 2006.

[DJBeasties]

I Just read this on baseballnotebook.com about Jason Bay. What do you guys make of this argument for a Bay decline? I'm not sure how to interpret this.



Jason Bay: Someone sent a note for consideration to the "Ask David" in box recently that compared my projection for him for 2006 to insanity. I'm projecting a .263 season with 24 home runs, 81 RBI and 16 steals which, obviously, is much lower than the .306-32-101-21 season he posted last year. Let me offer a couple of factors here with the acknowledgement that my projection will likely look worse than most other projection sources. I mentioned recently that it's entirely possible for hitters with a low contact rate to have good batting averages but much of the drop in projected batting average is coming from the projected drop in contact rate. Bay had a contact rate of about 76% last year - that is, about 76% of his at bats ended with him putting the ball in play. One of the challenges a forecaster faces is determining whether a change from season to season represents a real, permanent change (i.e. an improvement or decline) or if a result could perhaps be the result of some change mixed with some natural deviation, which you can call luck for lack of a better term. Bay's contact rate in 2004 was just 69% and in the minors in 2003 and 2002, his translated contact rate was 71% and 72% respectively. I'm projecting a 2006 contact rate more in line with what he did from 2002-2004 and that's at the heart of the drop in projected batting average. As for the power, if you look at the projection, the projected drop when examined on a home runs per ball in play basis, is only slight. In any case, the projected drop in fantasy value is neither coming from the batting average nor the projected home runs. Rather, it's coming from two other key areas that have higher confidence levels. First, there is a much lower projected games total (149) than he played in 2005 and that's because he didn't miss a single game in 2005. Players who are coming off 162 game seasons, with rare exceptions (see Cal Ripken Jr. for the previous generation or Miguel Tejada currently) typically drop back and even if it's only 10 games, that can put a real dent in their projected value. Moreover, Bay has one other area that is simply unrepeatable and that is the stolen base total. If you look, you'll see he was successful in 21 out of 22 stolen base attempts. Even if he were to run at the same rate as he did in 2005, and that's unlikely as stolen base attempts typically decline as a player ages (even one who is only twenty-seven), it's almost impossible to sustain that sort of stolen base success rate over the long-term. Ironically, I think Bay has the speed to run much more but won't. That is, he's the sort of player who, if given the green light, could steal even more bases. However, if I'm right that he's not about to get a constant green light, let's pretend for a moment that he ends up with even the same number of stolen base attempts in 2006 as he did in 2005 (22). A great base-stealer would be successful in about 75-80% of those and that would drop his total to around 16-18 steals rather than the 21 he had. All of this may seem like nitpicking at the details but the details really do add up to create the overall picture of a forecasted player value where Bay still has much projected value but not near as much as he had last year. In short, I really like Bay as a player but I suspect there are many fantasy league types who like him a lot more than I do for 2006.

[bigjonempire]

I read this and although I thought it was an interesting idea I didn't really go along with it. Contact rate can fluctuate due to a number of factors. If a player starts to be more selective at the plate and not swing at as many breaking balls his contact rate can rise. If a player decides to be more aggressive at the plate and swing at more balls that have been called strikes it can rise. If a player starts to learn the pitchers better his contact rate can rise.

Just the fact that Jason Bay has risen his contact rate at times while rising in the minors tells me he works on this sort of thing. I'm pretty sure Jason Bay is for real.

[willthethrill]

Originally Posted by DJBeasties

Moreover, Bay has one other area that is simply unrepeatable and that is the stolen base total. If you look, you'll see he was successful in 21 out of 22 stolen base attempts. Even if he were to run at the same rate as he did in 2005, and that's unlikely as stolen base attempts typically decline as a player ages (even one who is only twenty-seven), it's almost impossible to sustain that sort of stolen base success rate over the long-term. Ironically, I think Bay has the speed to run much more but won't. That is, he's the sort of player who, if given the green light, could steal even more bases. However, if I'm right that he's not about to get a constant green light, let's pretend for a moment that he ends up with even the same number of stolen base attempts in 2006 as he did in 2005 (22). A great base-stealer would be successful in about 75-80% of those and that would drop his total to around 16-18 steals rather than the 21 he had.

Bay has a history of minor league success stealing bases. His success last year should only reinforce that. Without knowing much about Jim Tracy's style, I would think that a team that had someone steal 21 bases at a high success rate would encourage that player to run more.

So, I would bet my money on Bay stealing more than his 21 bases last year, not less.

[The Evil Empire]

Is it possible that this guy is going the other way just to be different? So yext year he can be the guy to say that he called the decline. If Bay is terrific again this year, His call will be forgotten.

[chancellor]

bigjon touched on it, but the author missed a really, really important point:

2004 BB:K - 41:129, 120 games
2005 BB:K - 95:142, 162 games

So, his K rate/game (and /A has dropped, and his BB rate went up about 50%, even if you prorate his '04 numbers to 162 games. Seems to me Jason learned some plate discipline, and at the age of 27, I'd be expecting a small increase rather than decline.

[nakedricci]

I am definitely going to forward this analysis of the Bay decline to leaguemates in my attempt to pick him up this year.

[Bob Kohm]

With all due respect to David, he's trying to out-Shandler Shandler on this sort of stuff. As much as I respect Ron's work and have learned from it and him over the years, I think he has a lurking tendency to miss the big picture because he's so buried in his own "fanalytic" theories; in my opinion Ron's baselines are amongst the best out there and he doesn't miss as often as others, but when he misses he doesn't just miss the upright, he kicks it to the sideline.

David, on the other hand, produces decent-but-not-great baselines but seldom kicks it to the sidelines-- he actually lines up backwards and kicks it the wrong way, which is what he's done here. As Chance and bigjon pointed out, a bit of research beyond the formula shows you some serious misassumptions. Kvetch all you want about the inferiority of scouting and anecdotal evidence to the equation school of baseball, but when you go too far in either direction you're going to get screwed. Baseballnotebook.com under David is a little to mathematically smart for its own good.