[Canadianboy]

With all the dumping going on with the Marlins will Miguel Cabrera see a pitch this season? Plus who will be on base for him when he finally does see a pitch? Does anybody else think that his numbers will take a BIG hit this year.

[bigjonempire]

Its not going to be as bad as it seems. Hermida and Conine will protect him somewhat. I imagine he'll lose a bunch of rbi and walk a little more. They have good hitters to plug in they're just young.

[Canadianboy]

I agree Hermida looks promising but I have Conine on a big downslide.

[phantaciephreak]

Ya, relying on a rookie with no MLB experience and a mediocre hitter for protection is somewhat questionable in my opinion.

The kid can hit, and there's not douting that, but the Florida fire sale will DEFINITELY put strain on his offensive production, especially runs and rbis. I think he'll really need to work on his plate discipline in order to maintain his HR and BA numbers because he's not going to get a lot of fat pitches to hit.

It'll be interesting to see where he plays next year......I wouldn't be surprised if he was moved back to 3B with the loss of Lowell.

2006: .300 avg/28 hr/95 rbi/.365 obp

Based on this prediction, I don't think he'll earn the amount you pay for him in drafts this year. Although he'll only be 23 this upcoming season, so he's still a top-notch keeper.

[chancellor]

He'll take a hit on his R/RBI numbers, but if he's mature enough and doesn't get too frustrated, he could push to a .400+ OBP.

[Gravy Boy]

Originally Posted by chancellor

He'll take a hit on his R/RBI numbers, but if he's mature enough and doesn't get too frustrated, he could push to a .400+ OBP.

Here's the thing - I don't think he IS mature enough. Didn't he have some major problems just a couple years back with the organization?

[LongGone]

They may just give him pitches to hit. The bases will be empty, and the opposing team will be up 7-0 every game Dontrelle isn't pitching. He could end up with 40 HR's and 40 RBI's.

[chancellor]

Originally Posted by Gravy Boy

Here's the thing - I don't think he IS mature enough. Didn't he have some major problems just a couple years back with the organization?

Yes, he did, but he has two full MLB seasons under his belt now. Even with that, he's only 23 or 24 now, so you could well be right. But even with a small push in plate discipline, I think he can get that .400+ OBP. He was over .380 OBP last year, so it's not a huge jump.

It'll be interesting to see how the young players hit around him.

[bigjonempire]

Originally Posted by LongGone

They may just give him pitches to hit. The bases will be empty, and the opposing team will be up 7-0 every game Dontrelle isn't pitching. He could end up with 40 HR's and 40 RBI's.

I don't this is true either. Their defense should be excellent. The young starters they have are all very highly regarded.

[LongGone]

Originally Posted by bigjonempire

I don't this is true either. Their defense should be excellent. The young starters they have are all very highly regarded.

I agree with you but unless you're Miguel Cabrera you don't jump out of the gate hitting 30 HR and 100 RBI's.
Rookie pitchers especially have a rough time at the start.

Anyone have any idea what the rotation is going to look like?
Anyone have any guess as to who's going to be closing games for this team?

[Judge Jude]

Wow, if Cabrera is a stock, I'm buying right now, based on these exaggerations.
This reminds me of people who pay less for a closer on a bad team, even though there is very little correlation between Saves and team quality.

Great hitters who have great seasons pile up great stats, regardless of the quality of their team. There is virtually no need to discount based on his teammates. The rare cases where the quality of teammates makes a huge difference either way - see Vern Stephens' RBI, 1948-50 - should not make people raise and lower bids based on who's hitting ahead of or behind him.

Sometimes theories that sound good at first just don't match reality. This is one of them.
But this will inspire me to make an offer to our Cabrera owner, using these faulty assumptions!

(no offense intended to anyone; trust me on this...)

[phantaciephreak]

Originally Posted by Judge Jude

Wow, if Cabrera is a stock, I'm buying right now, based on these exaggerations.
This reminds me of people who pay less for a closer on a bad team, even though there is very little correlation between Saves and team quality.

Great hitters who have great seasons pile up great stats, regardless of the quality of their team. There is virtually no need to discount based on his teammates. The rare cases where the quality of teammates makes a huge difference either way - see Vern Stephens' RBI, 1948-50 - should not make people raise and lower bids based on who's hitting ahead of or behind him.

Sometimes theories that sound good at first just don't match reality. This is one of them.
But this will inspire me to make an offer to our Cabrera owner, using these faulty assumptions!

(no offense intended to anyone; trust me on this...)

So you're telling me guys like Mike Sweeney and Todd Helton would've had the same production on a team with better players around them (i.e. Yankees) than they did with their current teams in 2005? I'm not so sure I buy into this....

[Canadianboy]

I have to agree with phantaciephreak Sweeney and Helton are better players on better teams. RBI`S and Runs scored are very important numbers and he won`t have the support. We`re not saying that he`s a bad pick, we`re just thinking that he might have a tough time reaching some of last years numbers. Considering that he will be a multi-positional player (OF-3rd) still makes him a very interesting pick.

[Gravy Boy]

And roto numbers for 2006 aside, I wonder if he'll be staying on the Marlins much longer. Nor NL only leagues, I'd keep that mind. Far-fetched? Maybe, but consider...

1. 2006 will be his last real cheap year, and he'll likely make $5M in arbitration for 2007. While that's still a bargain for him, I can see it giving the Marlins second thoughts.

2. I can see him getting REAL frustrated and trying to force a trade. I can't believe he'll sign a long term deal now, and he won't be afraid to squeeze every last dollar out of arbitration.

3. The offers are going to be there for him. Two or three high ceiling prospects from an organization might be appealing to Marlins management because they would be cheaper, the team isn't going going to compete for a few years anyway, and they could be around (as opposed to looking at free agency) in 2010.

I know this isn't what the Marlins are saying right now, but when the environment is right, attitudes change.

[joncarlos]

Originally Posted by Gravy Boy

And roto numbers for 2006 aside, I wonder if he'll be staying on the Marlins much longer. Nor NL only leagues, I'd keep that mind. Far-fetched? Maybe, but consider...

1. 2006 will be his last real cheap year, and he'll likely make $5M in arbitration for 2007. While that's still a bargain for him, I can see it giving the Marlins second thoughts.

2. I can see him getting REAL frustrated and trying to force a trade. I can't believe he'll sign a long term deal now, and he won't be afraid to squeeze every last dollar out of arbitration.

3. The offers are going to be there for him. Two or three high ceiling prospects from an organization might be appealing to Marlins management because they would be cheaper, the team isn't going going to compete for a few years anyway, and they could be around (as opposed to looking at free agency) in 2010.

I know this isn't what the Marlins are saying right now, but when the environment is right, attitudes change.

Can you imagine a team like the Angels making a run at him? I'd imagine it would be hard for the Marlins turning down an offer like Aybar, Kotchman and Weaver for Cabrera.

I will echo the general sentiment that he will draw over 100 walks next year. Hermida is going to provide some protection but I worry that he'll be TOO patient giving the crap that will be hitting behind him. If Hanley Ramirez starts the year in the majors I think he'll struggle offensively at least for 2006. J-Willy and Jacobs will at least provide some cheap power and Conine isn't terrible. But with Pierre likely moving and Castillo gone, who will hit at the top of the order? Do they dare bat Hermida 2nd?

[phantaciephreak]

Originally Posted by joncarlos

I will echo the general sentiment that he will draw over 100 walks next year.

.....and I would bet that 40% of those walks will be intentional. No reason to pitch to him when there's no threat behind him in the order.

[Hammer]

This guy was a top my wish list at the end of 2005 when I was looking to 2006. He is young, polished and a power hitter who has a great average. With the dismantling of the Marlins and no other big hitter in the lineup, what kind of regression to Miggy's numbers can be expected in 2k6?

[Sharky]

Originally Posted by Hammer

This guy was a top my wish list at the end of 2005 when I was looking to 2006. He is young, polished and a power hitter who has a great average. With the dismantling of the Marlins and no other big hitter in the lineup, what kind of regression to Miggy's numbers can be expected in 2k6?

What? Mike Jacobs not a big hitter?

[Juiced]

Other than pride in trying to get him out why even pitch to him?

[Hammer]

Originally Posted by Juiced

Other than pride in trying to get him out why even pitch to him?

I agree with you but baseball pitched around Bonds too and he put up very good numbers.