[splinter]

In a 5x5 mixed draft league, if you're picking 7th-10th and RJ and Unit happen to be available, who do you take, disregarding the theory that pitchers are big risk in the first round. (And assuming Vlad, Arod, Beltran, Pujols, Tejada and Abreu are gone.)

Unit can still dominate, has a great offense backing him up and a relief corps that can seal the deal for him. But he does get the DH now and a couple of loaded teams in his own division with Boston and Baltimore. Plus there's the media scrutiny and the leg injury, however minor it may be.

Santana comes off a sensational season, on a decent team, also with a solid relief corps a decent offense and an arguably weak division. Has youth on his side although not necessarily the health that comes with it as we've seen. Has been touted as having the talent before last year, but can he bring it again to warrant a first round selection?

Is it a gut call as I am thinking or is one clearly the better pick?

[Hammer]

Santana is the better pick in keeper leagues but I think its a toss up for 2005

[joncarlos]

I think Unit will be a little better in 2005, but the extra risk would probably point me towards Santana anyway.

[splinter]

Thanks. Should have clarified there's no keepers.

[sfenty]

I think it is very close, but Randy is 41 years old, and moving to the AL, which should bring down his Ks a bit. I'd go with Santana, even in a non keeper league. You really can't go wrong either way.

[nullnor]

i'd consider that teams sometimes play up or down to their opponent. if that means a low scoring game when RJ is on the mound or a high scoring because of the yankees offense, i don't know. but i do think the twins will score less runs so there is more pressure on santana.

on the other hand the big unit on NYY seems to good to be true, and ironic since his one knock was wins last year. but it is true and if he stays healthy could win 30 games?

thus if you think you can use those extra wins....

there is an injury risk with RJ, but as good as johan is he did have a somewhat lower first half last year than expected.

i think randy wins more but gives up more runs, since im advocate over ratios than wins i have been choosing santana over johnson.

EDIT: i heard that BAL had hard times vs left handers last year, but their roster has changed a little. i don't know. if thats still true randy does face them more; but that is offset by johan being a lefty too.

[KatoMan]

Originally Posted by nullnor

i'd consider that teams sometimes play up or down to their opponent. if that means a low scoring game when RJ is on the mound or a high scoring because of the yankees offense, i don't know. but i do think the twins will score less runs so there is more pressure on santana.

on the other hand the big unit on NYY seems to good to be true, and ironic since his one knock was wins last year. but it is true and if he stays healthy could win 30 games?

thus if you think you can use those extra wins....

there is an injury risk with RJ, but as good as johan is he did have a somewhat lower first half last year than expected.

i think randy wins more but gives up more runs, since im advocate over ratios than wins i have been choosing santana over johnson.

EDIT: i heard that BAL had hard times vs left handers last year, but their roster has changed a little. i don't know. if thats still true randy does face them more; but that is offset by johan being a lefty too.

I disagree with the idea of the Twins scoring fewer runs this year. They lost Coskie and Guzman who let's be honest aren't the best hitters on the planet. Replaced them with Cuddyer at third and Bartlett at SS. I do see a bit of an offensive dropoff with those two, not as much as you would suspect though. Add that to the idea of having Mauer and Mourneau in the line-up full time and the offense should be as good or better than last year.

'05 projections:

Unit - 21 W, 3.30 ERA, 275 K's
Santana - 20 W, 2.80 ERA, 260 K's

[ezeagle]

Originally Posted by splinter

In a 5x5 mixed draft league, if you're picking 7th-10th and RJ and Unit happen to be available, who do you take, disregarding the theory that pitchers are big risk in the first round. (And assuming Vlad, Arod, Beltran, Pujols, Tejada and Abreu are gone.)

Unit can still dominate, has a great offense backing him up and a relief corps that can seal the deal for him. But he does get the DH now and a couple of loaded teams in his own division with Boston and Baltimore. Plus there's the media scrutiny and the leg injury, however minor it may be.

Santana comes off a sensational season, on a decent team, also with a solid relief corps a decent offense and an arguably weak division. Has youth on his side although not necessarily the health that comes with it as we've seen. Has been touted as having the talent before last year, but can he bring it again to warrant a first round selection?

Is it a gut call as I am thinking or is one clearly the better pick?

I always though Rj was the big unit.

[sfenty]

Originally Posted by nullnor

on the other hand the big unit on NYY seems to good to be true, and ironic since his one knock was wins last year. but it is true and if he stays healthy could win 30 games?

thus if you think you can use those extra wins....

I assume you are being facetious here. No pitcher, no matter how good can come close to 30 wins with a 5 man rotation. He'll be lucky to make 35 starts. I'd guess both Randy and Johan win about 20. As far as Santana's poor start, it just makes his final numbers that much more impressive.

[jgrendel]

Toss-up. I might prefer Santana due to personal bias.

j

[cardboardbox]

I've been thinking about this too if those players are already drafted. I figure if I draft Santana, he'll blow out his elbow. If I draft RJ, his knee will give out. I may just play it safe and take Manny.

[splinter]

It's an interesting draft theory. Do you 'settle' for a hitter slightly below the A-list of first-round worthy hitters or do you look at it as having the first overall pick for pitchers and grab some other solid hitter on the way back.

[Syd Finch]

I just completed a 14 team 5x5 Mixed Redraft league and I took Santan at 1.10 (over RJ). I made out fairly nicely with this strategy as I loaded up on hitters thereafter.

[nullnor]

Originally Posted by KatoMan

I disagree with the idea of the Twins scoring fewer runs this year.

i meant fewer runs than the yankees. how that plays in a division that will score fewer runs than the east, i guess it evens out.

Originally Posted by sfenty

I assume you are being facetious here. No pitcher, no matter how good can come close to 30 wins with a 5 man rotation. He'll be lucky to make 35 starts. I'd guess both Randy and Johan win about 20. As far as Santana's poor start, it just makes his final numbers that much more impressive.

i was being facetious, kind of. with no data to back me up i would expect RJ to win atleast 5 more than johan. and probably a little more. hey, anything can happen with wins tho. did the yankees score alot of comback wins last year? or maybe it was they scored alot in later innings? maybe RJ gets alot of no decisions. i don't know. probably not tho.

Originally Posted by splinter

It's an interesting draft theory. Do you 'settle' for a hitter slightly below the A-list of first-round worthy hitters or do you look at it as having the first overall pick for pitchers and grab some other solid hitter on the way back.

grab a solid hitter on the way back. thome for instance, if he's there? goodluck.

[bigjonempire]

Originally Posted by sfenty

I assume you are being facetious here. No pitcher, no matter how good can come close to 30 wins with a 5 man rotation. He'll be lucky to make 35 starts. I'd guess both Randy and Johan win about 20. As far as Santana's poor start, it just makes his final numbers that much more impressive.

How many bad starts did Randy Johnson have last year?

Looking at his PQS rating he had a 91%/0% Dom/Dis ratio last year. At that rate he could win 26-28 games just pitching as well as he did last year. With the added support of the Yankee lineup he can absolutely be in a position to win every start.