[John Mayberry]

Turns 33 next month. Somewhat spotty PT resume. Coming off a career year. The last time that Mora had +500 ABs in a season (aside from 04), he posted a .233/.338/.404 line.

A few items:

His OPS went up by 240 or so points from his 02 & 04 seasons.
His BB/K ratio has been very stable the past 3 years
His G:F ratio is leaning from Flyball to Groundball
His contact ratio is nearly identical (AB-K/At bats)
AB/HR dropped from 29.3 to 20.4...how? He's making the same contact as he was back in 02. Same AB sample size. His G:F ratio did not spike.

I give up trying to figure this one out and where he's heading in 05.

[joncarlos]

2k4 stats: 550 AB, .340-27-104-111r-11sb, .419 OBP, .562 SLG, 41 doubles, 66 BB/95 K, 6 CS

I can't see him hitting .340 again, but he should be able to repeat his .317 mark from 2003. Doubles rate spiked along with his power, so 20+ HR should also be repeatable. Walk rate dropped just a touch, but his eye is still very good and he still makes pretty good contact. In the last 3 years he's posted 33 SB and 19 CS, so the O's obviously don't mind him running.

He hit .333/.406/.567 after the break and .347/.433/.556 before it... really hit for a bit more power after the break. Mid-30s power spikes are not uncommon any more in MLB.

I will say something like 550 AB, .315-29-105-115R-13sb

For 3B rankings, he's right up there. I would probably go with:

A-Rod
~~~~~
Rolen
Mora
~~~~~
Aramis
Chavez
~~~~~
Chipper
Lowell

The differences that I use to seperate the players are very, very small in this case.

[cavebird]

I still don't trust Mora---players don't break out after being in the majors so long and being so old. However, that is what I thought after 2003, and we can all see how wrong I was last year. I just don't get it. Maybe there are just late bloomers after all.

[John Mayberry]

Originally Posted by joncarlos

Doubles rate spiked along with his power, so 20+ HR should also be repeatable. Walk rate dropped just a touch, but his eye is still very good and he still makes pretty good contact.

Mid-30s power spikes are not uncommon any more in MLB.

I will say something like 550 AB, .315-29-105-115R-13sb

I'm not picking on you JC, but the thing with Mora is that his 02 & 04 seasons were almost mirror images of themselves saber-wise. Contact rates went from 80.6 to 82.7, same K:BB ratio, same stadium, his G:F backslid to Groundball in 04, same amount of ABs. There is a huuuuge gulf between his 02 & 04 season and too much of an uncertainty for me at least. I might be wacked, but Mora is a player that I'm more than leery of next year.

link: Mora stats

[chancellor]

Mora had very strong numbers in '03 before his hand injury. He got hit sometime just before the break in '03, and then all his numbers started a slide until the Orioles finally DLd him for most of the remainder of the year. Up to his hand injury, he had an OPS over 1, a BA around .350 and a OBP in the mid-.400s, if I remember right. In '04 he had a solid doubles rate to go with his HRs, so I don't suspect a power drop.

His foot and hammy injuries worry me more than anything - he's already 33, so I'm suspicious that the SBs may drop a bit. I'll go with:

.330-28-105-110-8

[Mr. Squidward]

Big jump in production coincided with him having quintuplets......I guess having 5 new mouths to feed inspired him to actually be productive and get a long term contract......

I would expect much of the same from 2003 and 2004 to continue......he seems to have turned the corner and should stay there at least through 2005.....

[Don Quixote]

Originally Posted by Mr. Squidward

Big jump in production coincided with him having quintuplets......I guess having 5 new mouths to feed inspired him to actually be productive and get a long term contract......

I would expect much of the same from 2003 and 2004 to continue......he seems to have turned the corner and should stay there at least through 2005.....

I figure having to lift all those babies made him stronger. It's as good an explanation as any!

Valuation? I have no idea. May be one of those "targets of opportunity" that present themselves during a draft ("Hmmm, haven't considered him, but the bid price is pretty low, so..."). A late bloomer, yes, but he'd never been a regular while under 30, so perhaps he didn't have all the wear and tear. In any event, he's a good player, great BA, seems good on defense (at a new position, no less), and I've never heard a bad word about him as a person.