[John Mayberry]

The 23 year-old Zambrano posted across the board highs in a majority of his stat metrics. Lots of things to like about his skill, but there are some warnings too.

- 540 IP thrown thus far and he'll turn 24 next June.
- 3 year escalting PPG (99/106/111)
- Decrease in G/F ratio
- Dusty Baker as his manager

+ BB:K control is moving in the right direction
+ OPS against 3 year improvement
+ BAA reduced almost 15 points (from 04 to 03)
+ WHIP 3 year improvement

He's got a big body, so he might be able to handle the workload, but I get a little nervous about that many innings on a kid that young.

[chancellor]

I watched CZ a lot this year. Not only does he have nasty stuff, he's learning how to pitch. Well, at least when he's not throwing at people.

Eight outings 120 pitches or more. He looks to have a body type that could tend to Colon type sizing if he's not careful. And he won't come at less than value any more. And, as JM pointed out, Dusty "counting by Torborg" Baker is his manager...for now.

On the flip side, he seems to be one of those mutants that can run up high pitch counts and still be effective. Three of those 120+ outings were consecutive, and went 2-1 with an ERA under 3 for them.

I like him for upper teens wins, 3.00 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 175 Ks. I think as he learns to pitch better, his K count will drop slightly, but his pitch count will go down. However, given his history, he comes with some risk, too. I don't like bidding big on pitchers, but in a new league (no inflation), I'd think CZ would be valued in the low to mid 20s.

[joncarlos]

We all thought Bartolo Colon might be one of those freaks who could stand up to the heavy workload indefinitly, and this year it finally got a little ugly. I love Zambrano, and I'm glad to see he's maturing a little bit, but I would never bet my season on a guy with a 25 cent head and that much mileage on his young arm.

I'll give him one more year of durability before it crashes down, but I wouldn't sign him for 2005 and beyond unless you can cut him if he's injured.

16-10, 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 175 Ks in 210 IP

Just FYI here are his 2004 numbers:

16-8, 2.75 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 188 Ks, 174 hits, 81 walks, 14 HR in 209.2 IP

Also, what is it with Zambrano and unearned runs? Was he lucky 3 years in a row? Does he pitch in a manner that generates a lot of errors? Do the Cubs just suck behind him? Check this out:

2002: 53 runs, 9 unearned (17%)
2003: 88 runs, 12 unearned (13.6%)
2004: 73 runs, 9 unearned (12.3%)

Maddux this year had 103 runs allowed, 12 unearned (11.7%) but Clement only had 5 unearned (79 total, 6.3%), Wood had 4 unearned (62 total, 6.5%), and Prior had ZERO unearned (53 total).

[dalston]

Originally Posted by joncarlos

Also, what is it with Zambrano and unearned runs? Was he lucky 3 years in a row? Does he pitch in a manner that generates a lot of errors? Do the Cubs just suck behind him? Check this out:

2002: 53 runs, 9 unearned (17%)
2003: 88 runs, 12 unearned (13.6%)
2004: 73 runs, 9 unearned (12.3%)

Maddux this year had 103 runs allowed, 12 unearned (11.7%) but Clement only had 5 unearned (79 total, 6.3%), Wood had 4 unearned (62 total, 6.5%), and Prior had ZERO unearned (53 total).

Presumably we intuitively expect ground ball pitchers to have more errors committed behind them than flyball pitchers. And Zambrano is consistently pretty extreme, I think. It would be interesting to see a study of the correlation between unearned run rate and GB:FB ration in working out what is noise and what isn't. Does anyone know of a study that's looked at this?

[fresno bob]

sounds like I should keep him at $2 then, eh?

[chancellor]

Originally Posted by joncarlos

Also, what is it with Zambrano and unearned runs? Was he lucky 3 years in a row? Does he pitch in a manner that generates a lot of errors? Do the Cubs just suck behind him? Check this out:

2002: 53 runs, 9 unearned (17%)
2003: 88 runs, 12 unearned (13.6%)
2004: 73 runs, 9 unearned (12.3%)

Maddux this year had 103 runs allowed, 12 unearned (11.7%) but Clement only had 5 unearned (79 total, 6.3%), Wood had 4 unearned (62 total, 6.5%), and Prior had ZERO unearned (53 total).

My vote is for "the Cubs just suck behind him". It probably can't be statistically supported (other than with Aramis), but it has a nice ring to it.

[TS Garp]

Zambrano is very talented, and the Colon comparisons make sense, but to just add to what people have been saying about him being a burnout candidate, take a look at his pitch counts from June forward:

6/5: 113
6/10: 121
6/15: 102
6/20: 122
6/26: 128
7/2: 123
7/7: 108
7/19: 108
7/24: 104
7/29: 120
8/4: 113
8/11: 124
8/17: 96
8/23: 115
8/28: 125
9/6: 119
9/11: 103
9/17: 112
9/22: 117
9/27: 124
10/2: 120

That's pretty horrendous.

I agree with JC that I could see Zambrano having another good season before he breaks down, but I don't really want any part of him.

[Ryno84MVP]

No news is good news for this Cubs fan...Zambrano is clearly the one Cubs pitcher you want to target on draft day.

[willthethrill]

Originally Posted by Ryno84MVP

No news is good news for this Cubs fan...Zambrano is clearly the one Cubs pitcher you want to target on draft day.

But, in light of Prior and Wood going down, is the Zambrano clock ticking? I like Zambrano, but I'm not going to extra buck on him.

[Syd Finch]

Originally Posted by willthethrill

But, in light of Prior and Wood going down, is the Zambrano clock ticking? I like Zambrano, but I'm not going to extra buck on him.

I was just offered Rich Harden straight up for Zambrano in redraft league in which we had our draft 1 week ago. I'm actually tempted given the "burnout" concerns, but I still think that I need the deal sweetned a bit more to pull the trigger (may try to extract Bellhorn as a throw in since all I've got at 2B is Kaz Matsui).

[Clementejr]

I remember hearing rumors that Zambrano is a few years older than his listed age, he certaily looks older and may have slipped through the recent "AgeGate" scandal (apparently along with Pujols). Anyway would it change your opinion of him and burnout if you knew he was 26 going on 27 rather than 23 going on 24?

[Bodhizefa]

As an addendum to what TS Garp wrote about Zambrano's pitch counts, here's a little background on Baker's usage of Zamby, Prior, and Wood from the last two years.

We'll start with Prior. Let's look at some facts, shall we:

116 pitches
118 pitches
100 pitches
116 pitches
131 pitches
129 pitches
110 pitches
124 pitches
131 pitches
133 pitches
133 pitches (playoffs)
116 pitches (playoffs)
119 pitches (playoffs)

In 2003, when the Cubs were pushing for the playoffs, Prior was left out to dry by Dusty Baker. Those 13 pitch counts were Prior's final 13 starts, including the playoffs. At the age of 22/23 (he turned 23 in September that year), Baker allowed Prior to average 121 pitches per start. That's just sickening to the stomach, and downright depressing as Prior has been one of my favorite pitchers in baseball since his arrival. Anyone remember what happened to Prior in that last start? He had zero left in the tank after the seventh inning and was throwing straight curveballs and batting practice fastballs to the Marlins hitters. What did Baker do? Leave him out there instead of go to his bullpen -- a typical move for a manager who seems not to care about the health and well-being of his young starters. So what did Baker do to Prior in '04 for the stretch run after having seen the ramifications of what his pitch counts the previous season did to Prior?

116 pitches
111 pitches
102 pitches
113 pitches
109 pitches
113 pitches

After keeping Prior to a strict pitch limit as he came back from his various ailments in '04, Dusty took the gloves off for the stretch run and allowed him a 113 pitches per start average, a number that would've placed him above such inning eater stalwarts like Livan Hernandez and Jason Schmidt into league leading territory. Clearly Baker did not learn his lesson, and now Mark Prior is injured yet again at the hands of an old-fashioned manager who refuses to listen. Sometimes I wonder if Baker has ever learned how to drive a car and instead rides a horse to the stadium every day.

Wood's resume is similar. In '03, he averaged 110.8 pitches per start, having one game where Baker left him out for 141 pitches. He finished the season with these games:

125 pitches
120 pitches
122 pitches
114 pitches
125 pitches
122 pitches
124 pitches (playoffs)
117 pitches (playoffs)
109 pitches (playoffs)
112 pitches (playoffs)

That's an average of 119 pitches per start, for those of you counting at home. Ludicrous? Yes. And what happened to Wood in '04 is likely attributable to just that. Wood tuckered out at the end of the '03 playoffs just as Prior did, and by then Baker had not only lost the series to the Marlins, but he also punished two very talented pitchers into a high stress pitch zone that ended up costing the two of them a good chunk of '04. What's also interesting is that Baker used Wood hard at the end of '04 just as he did to Prior. Here's Wood's last 6 games:

119 pitches
97 pitches
118 pitches
104 pitches
120 pitches
106 pitches

That averages out to 110.7 pitches per start, again amongst the league leaders. Baker just doesn't get it.

Why do I mention this? I present to you the pitch count average of one 23 year old righthander that the Cubs are now relying upon and that many fantasy owners are expecting a breakout from this season. 111.9 pitches per start was Carlos Zambrano's average for '04. This was Baker's usage of him down the stretch:

120 pitches
113 pitches
124 pitches
96 pitches
115 pitches
125 pitches
119 pitches
103 pitches
112 pitches
117 pitches
124 pitches
120 pitches

What's that average you ask? Only 115.7 pitches per start, that's all. Guys, if you want to go with your hearts and predict the breakout from Zambrano and that he'll be fine despite all this, great. But be forewarned. Baker is at the helm, and that's about as scary as can be for a young pitcher these days. I won't be touching Zambrano with a ten-meter cattle prod at this point.

[fresno bob]

Don't criticize or 2nd guess Dusty, he'll get mad....

[joncarlos]

Originally Posted by Bodhizefa

What's that average you ask? Only 115.7 pitches per start, that's all. Guys, if you want to go with your hearts and predict the breakout from Zambrano and that he'll be fine despite all this, great. But be forewarned. Baker is at the helm, and that's about as scary as can be for a young pitcher these days. I won't be touching Zambrano with a ten-meter cattle prod at this point.

I'm not saying that I'm not worried about CZ, but if you're in a league that goes nuts over this kind of thing, he could come at a discount. I rank him right below Harden but I think you can get him a few bucks cheaper.