[John Mayberry]

The 29 year-old Pavano suuuure picked a good year before entering free agency. 222 IP and a tidy 1.18 WHIP, good control, nice HR/9 numbers. Only 2 starts did he fail to get to the 6th inning (4/21 and 7/22, both vs Philly).

Looking at his health history, it should give you some hesitation before investing too highly in Pavano, and...

I'm not sure where he'll end up, but I would not be surprised if he gets $10M per.

[TS Garp]

2004 stats: 222.1 ip, 212 hits, 16 hr's, 49 bb's, 139 k's, 3.00 era, 1.17 WHIP, 18-8

We'll have to revisit this one once we see where he lands. If he ends up in a good pitcher's park with a talented defense around him, I think he could have a nice season, but probably not quite a repeat of 2004. One thing working in his favor is that he was actually better on the road:

Home: 3.20/1.27
Road: 2.83/1.09

I doubt that he'll fall apart completely, but something like this seems realistic:

205 ip, 3.80 era, 1.23 WHIP, 130 k's (won't even guess at wins until we see where he signs).

[Teenwolf]

At first glance, the thing that sticks out to me is the low strikeout rate. 5.6 K/9 is the lowest of Pavano's entire career. Yet all of his other numbers far surpassed his previous career highs. I think that what this shows is that he's matured as a pitcher, and doesn't try for strikeouts as much anymore. It puts much less strain on your arm to make good pitches and let the defense make outs for you than to try for strikeouts. This is also evidenced in his career high IP, 21 ip higher than his previous career high.

The most obvious comparison I can think of is Roy Halladay circa 2002-3, though Pavano's numbers aren't quite that impressive. The main problem with the Halladay comparison is that Halladay broke down, and Pavano is no iron man.

So, take your chances that Pavano will take the next step, as Halladay did in 2003. Or if you're afraid of injuries, stay far away, as he's about as prime of a suspect as you'll find, amongst the guys that will cost $30+.

[joncarlos]

I think Halladay is a pretty good comp. 222 innings for Pavano is probably similar to 250 for Halladay. Even the low K totals are reminiscent of Halladay.

A lot of Marlins seemed to thrive in the relatively low-pressure environment in South Florida this year. Plus they have a pitcher friendly ballpark. Would Pavano thrive in some place like Boston or Yankee Stadium? How much of an adjustment would a move to the AL bring?

Pavano's 1.43 G/F is pretty good. Much better than the last Expo to move on to bigger and better things (Vazquez).

Then again, Pavano's OBA went from .238 to .272 in the second half. He'll probably give back some of his success if his hit luck doesn't hold. A .253 OBA might be tough to sustain with 5.6 K/9. Of course, the ERA can stay down as long as his OBA with runners in scoring position stays at .214

[phantaciephreak]

Pavano could easily win 20 games as the Yankees ace (if Randy doesn't get traded to them) or as the #2 guy. He can go deep into games, and as long as he stays, healthy, he should post good ratios. I think that's the key to his success. He has the talent to be a top-notch pitcher in MLB, but injuries have slowed his progression. The best signing by the Yankees thus far.

2005: 3.75 ERA/1.20 WHIP/180 K's/18 wins (assuming 33 starts and 225 innings pitched)

[johnd24_42]

Now that Unit has been dealt to the Yankees, do phreak's projections hold up? I think they do.

[joncarlos]

Originally Posted by johnd24_42

Now that Unit has been dealt to the Yankees, do phreak's projections hold up? I think they do.

No way Pavano gets 180 Ks in 220 innings. I'm not going to project 220 innings either, but if he gets 200, he should get more like 125-130 Ks.

Something more like 32 starts, 205 innings, 135 Ks, 3.85/1.25.

[phantaciephreak]

Originally Posted by joncarlos

No way Pavano gets 180 Ks in 220 innings. I'm not going to project 220 innings either, but if he gets 200, he should get more like 125-130 Ks.

Something more like 32 starts, 205 innings, 135 Ks, 3.85/1.25.

You're right.....180 Ks is a little high. I was taking into account the fact that I think Pavano still have some room to grow, as 2004 was his first full season as a starter. I do think 225 innings is a fair expectation though.

[Hammer]

in 200 innings I would guesstimate 145 k's.

[NIN]

I agree with JC's projections. BTW, this isn't Povano's first full season as a starter. He was a pretty good starter with Montreal before he developed arm problems.

[phantaciephreak]

Originally Posted by NIN

I agree with JC's projections. BTW, this isn't Povano's first full season as a starter. He was a pretty good starter with Montreal before he developed arm problems.

Prior to 2004, Pavano had never pitched more than 134 innings in a season. That's hardly considered a full season by starting pitcher standards.

[Riff Raff]

Originally Posted by phantaciephreak

Prior to 2004, Pavano had never pitched more than 134 innings in a season. That's hardly considered a full season by starting pitcher standards.

It's all flavour of the month. Oliver Perez and Peavy haven't put up big inning years with great K totals (although in fairness they are younger) but their 2004 seasons are deemed precessors to break out 2005 seasons.

It's pitching and hence a crapshoot. Pavano, Perez, Wright, Peavy. Who can really know until Oct 2005. If the dice roll the right way any of these guys could build in 2004 and any of them could fall flat.

... I'm pretty sure I just left myself wide open for a statistical barrage/onslaught and although I believe Peavy/Perez will out earn Pavano, and definately Wright, my point is simply that all of these guys are volitile going into this year.

[kldub4life]

Originally Posted by phantaciephreak

Prior to 2004, Pavano had never pitched more than 134 innings in a season. That's hardly considered a full season by starting pitcher standards.

Pavano pitched 201 innings in 2003

So he has had 2 straight seasons of 200+ innings.

[joncarlos]

Originally Posted by Riff Raff

It's all flavour of the month. Oliver Perez and Peavy haven't put up big inning years with great K totals (although in fairness they are younger) but their 2004 seasons are deemed precessors to break out 2005 seasons.

It's pitching and hence a crapshoot. Pavano, Perez, Wright, Peavy. Who can really know until Oct 2005. If the dice roll the right way any of these guys could build in 2004 and any of them could fall flat.

... I'm pretty sure I just left myself wide open for a statistical barrage/onslaught and although I believe Peavy/Perez will out earn Pavano, and definately Wright, my point is simply that all of these guys are volitile going into this year.

The K rate and the age of the players in question are major differences. Not only is Pavano older, but he's not a strikeout pitcher. That isn't to say there aren't concerns about Ollie (workload and control) and Peavy (workload) - just that given their youth, their upside is a lot higher.