[steve]

When I submitted my keeper lists to this board several people suggested I keep Blum. I have him at $1 in an NL only 4X4 10 team league. Considering his low battering average last year, I had really had NOT been planning on keeping him. Yes, he's cheap but is he any good.

Thoughts?

[Lobo]

-Howdy. About the only reason i can see for anyone recommending you keep him is that he runs a little and hits a little, helping you out in 3 categories beyond his $1 price.He turns a bit of profit, but i think that can easily be negated if he repeats that horrid BAvg.

Many of his qualitatives slumped in the second half as well, which indicates that he's not coming out of his funk anytime soon.

Bottom Line: Dump him or trade him.

Good luck with it.....Lobo

[ScottW]

Let's look at it another way---can you get a guy for $1. in your auction who can qualify at 2,3,OF under the 20 game rule and has played at least 4 games at every position except catcher? And further, what if he were to bat .271, OBP of .333, and SLG of .464? Because these are the career ##'s of Blum, and most conventional wisdom states that a player will usually come back to his career norm [after a great or a bad year] the following year. Are we guaranteed this will happen? Of course not, but it is what our wagering friends call a trend and is not to be forgotten, either. Does that give a different slant to it?

[Lobo]

-ScottW, i officially have no idea what you were trying to convey in this last post. Please clarify for the slow ones in the group like myself.....Lobo

[onejayhawk]

He may not qualify as a true Freshman. But no one else threw him out there.

Does anyone expect the top draft picks to make an impact this year? or the 2000 draftees?

[Ztws]

I think Scott was saying that it will be very difficult to find a hitter for $1 who qualifies at three positions and has solid career numbers. Blum will likely turn a solid profit ($5-7) if you freeze him for $1. Considering Tatis health and the LF situation (Wilkerson isn't proven), Blum could wind up with 350-400 at bats hitting .265-.270 with 10-12 homers and 35-40 rbis. Not bad for $1.

[JW-Baseball]

I always try to find one guy each year that I can plug in at several positions when there's an injury. Blum fits the bill this year, as do several others that might be below some people's radar screens - Counsell (2b/SS/3b), T Shumpert (2b/OF), R Martinez (2b/ss/3b). With a 10 Team NL league, however, these guys may not be as valuable since the free agent pool may be large enough to provide a worthy substitute if one of your regulars is injured. Just my thoughts.

JW

[ScottW]

Lobo,
I think ztws moves to the head of the class, grasping the clearly stated nuances of my previous post! Let me reprint his exact interpretation for you:

I think Scott was saying that it will be very difficult to find a hitter for $1 who qualifies at three positions and has solid career numbers. Blum will likely turn a solid profit ($5-7) if you freeze him for $1. Considering Tatis health and the LF situation (Wilkerson isn't proven), Blum could wind up with 350-400 at bats hitting .265-.270 with 10-12 homers and 35-40 rbis. Not bad for $1.

We wrote it, slowly, in crayon for you!

[Catfishkid]

I suppose if I had nobody else worth keeping, I might keep Blum, but if there were anybody else, he does not make it on cutdown day. Is a guy who might get 350-400 AB's worth protecting (even for $1)? In my mind, the answer is no.

[Lobo]

-Oh, i get it now...

Well, i certainly don't agree that a player's value goes up in a 10-team league just because he qualifies at more than one position. Especially a guy like Blum. And here's why.

These "solid career numbers" i just cannot find. He had one decent year in 99, one slightly-better year in 2000, and came back to what you would expect in 2001 by his minor league performance. I seriously doubt the sanity of anyone who thinks this guy can hit above .250. His qualitatives are down 3 years running, including first and second-half splits from '01, and his only hit above .247 opnce in 5 years of ball at various levels.

So, unless i'm missing something again, i still think he's not worth keeping in a 10-team league. 12-team NL-only, absolutely i'd keep him for a buck, but with 10 owners the talent pool is too deep to justify having Blum on your squad.

Oh, and thanks for clarifying, i appreciate y'all taking the time to humor me and my sub-human intellect. goes back to finger-painting

Have a good one.....Lobo

[Catfishkid]

Lobo,


I think you have made two mistakes, which might explain the animosity.

One - your choice of a profession. Everyone just loves to hate lawyers. Except of course when they need one.

Two - you should have bought a t-shirt.

[Lobo]

-I think Catfishkid deserves that seat at the head of the class. Seriously, though, getting flak for that stuff doesn't bug me. After all, i'm not here to be liked, i'm here to contribute to a great rotisserie baseball resource.

And this contributor says, in a 10-team NL-only league, Blum isn't worth keeping for any reason other than desperation or that end-game "this is gonna hurt" pick to fill out your roster.

Have a good one.....Lobo

[steve]

That's what I originally thought. I was just surprised when anyone suggested keeping Blum. His average last year just really hurt me team.

[John Hoyos]

I was forced to read this thread because I was trying to figure out why anyone would waste 12 posts (13 now) on Geoff Blum. The guy's a filler, part-time scrub on one of the worst teams in the National League. If you really like him, you can throw him back and get him for a buck again. Nobody in their right mind will want him!

[steve]

just wait til I ask about Jeff Bagwell!

[ScottW]

Hopefully, LongJohn, 15 times is a charm! My point, obviously missed by a multitude, is that you have to look at a keeper list from many different perspectives. Not once did I say that Blum SHOULD be kept, I suggested only that he COULD be kept for a few reasons that I enumerated, if one's keeper list needed what Blum can contribute to it--namely, positional flexibility, decent career ##'s in OBA and SLG, as well as a career BA of.271. And, with a poor team like Montreal, he will get more PT in which to improve. You could do worse if your keeper list were sparse. Would I keep him with 1 of mine? No, the conditions are not right, but keep an open mind on all your keeps and make decisions carefully.

[Lobo]

-I don't think your point was missed by anyone, once clearly explained, ScottW. I just question whether the points are valid or not.

In any league, you don't get more points because a guy qualifies at 2nd and 3rd. If a guy has greater value to you because of this, you need better roster planning in a 10-team NL-only league. The depth is there. I'm curious just how many people think position flexibility overrides the fact that the player's gonna hit .245 next season.

Second, i still can't see these decent career numbers. He's below league average in OB and SLg, and the only reason he's a lifetime .271 is because of 2000 when he hit .283. He's never, i repeat, never hit above .247 on any baseball level other than that season. Or do you see a trend in his numbers that i'm missing?

Sorry if this is rehashing my points, but i wanted to establish them again before asking: Just how much should position flexibility be factored into a players value? And how much does it affect your personal valuations?

Have a good one.....Lobo

[james33]

When injuries occur (and they always seem to), position flexibility ends up being pretty valuable. This seems to be dependent on what percentage of the normal every day players are drafted.

In a 12 - team 24 man AL league, with 6 reserve slots, we end up drafting more than just the every day players; part-timers and hopefully-timers end up being on people's rosters.

In other words, the more players your league drafts, the more valuable position flexibility is, because there is less likely to be free agent talent available.

I don't have a scientific method at all for calculating how much value to add to a flexible player.

Finally, a guy who qualifies at catcher and outfield should be lumped in with the catchers. His qualifying at OF doesn't help you. But, a guy who qualifies at 2B and 3B and SS helps you a lot.

Relaford proved very valuable to me last year since I could make him a MI or a CI.

[ScottW]

Position flexibility is crucial for almost any team, especially when injuries strike; if your 2B goes out, and a very talented 3B is available, you now have the possibility of picking him up, moving a Blum kind of guy to the 2B position, enabling you to take advantage of an injury situation. This is not a bad thing. Should you have several of these guys? Of course not.Should you have none at all? Of course not, or you will surely regret it. Is Blum the perfect hitter for this flexibility job? Maybe. His defense will give him a lot more opportunities to play, and if he can hit his career ##'s, he has value. You keep stressing that his BA is only as high as .271 because of 1 good year;maybe it should be HIGHER due to his bad year in 1999, when he hit only .241. See the problem? It's too small a sampling to reliably establish trends or solid numbers in general. The point is, Blum or not, it is not always a bad thing to carry a true utility player LIKE Blum, or Shumpert, or Dave Martinez, or Ramon Martinez.

[joncarlos]

Jesus, what is this 20 posts on Geoff Blum? We have had a lot of good players go less than 20 posts!

I can see both sides - it's nice to have a utility player. Blum's worth is more than his stats, think about it this way:

Some other OF + Eric Young

vs

Blum + Eric Young

Now, when (not if) EY goes down, you are stuck replacing him with a 2B. So now you have 150 ABs of replacement 2B who probably hits worse than Blum. Or, if you have Blum, you have 150 ABs of replacement OF who is probably better than the replacement 2B. But you MAY have less production from your starting OF b/c "some other OF" probably hits better than Blum.

So it's really this:

Blum + EY + 150 ABs of replacement OF

OR

Some other OF + EY + 150 ABs of replacement 2B

I'm sure you can find a "some other OF" who makes both sides of the keep/toss Blum argument

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The other argument is that you should have a utility player who, if he hits .240, doesn't take up 400 ABs in the process and kill your AVG.