Jose Cruz: Forgotten 30/30 Man?
 

What are people's general impressions of Jose Cruz, Jr? I ask because in a post in the Keepers Forum, nobody selected a $13 Jose Cruz as a keeper, opting for other players like Mark Quinn $2, Alex Ochoa $10, Tony Armas $4, or Derek Lee $11. All of those guys are good keeper choices and amongst the ones I'm considering, but I thought that Cruz might have been chosen by someone.

Cruz had what I think we can safely call a breakout year, going .274/34/88/92/32 sbs in 37 attempts. He had an .857 OPS, although his OBP was a fairly lousy .326 .

Are people's general impressions of Cruz fairly negative after the two or three year saga of trades and waiting for him to bust out, all the while with Vernon Wells hanging around? Do you think this year was an aberration or the fulfillment of his promise? Will the OBP drag his average down or will it improve with age?

I'm very curious about this one; if it was Raul Mondesi $13 I have the feelign that people would have wanted him as a keeper.

Thoughts?

I think Cruz at $13 is a good gamble. His batting average is a concern, but a that price, I would take a shot at him. 30-30 guys are hard to find. He tends to strike out a lot (almost once a game), but his power and speed numbers make up the difference.

In an open auction, I probably wouldn't go higher than about $20 for him, but I would definitely snatch him up at $13.

- Robert

Bob, Cruz is certainly a keeper in our league at $13. I also had him in my other league, but that's a H2H fantasy point league, and his strikeouts count there, making him not quite as valuable. Still, he's a good player, and a credit to any fantasy team!

I don't know...

Cruz at $13 is probably fair value, but it really depends who else you have on your team. Can your batting avg. afford to take the hit? What about your RBIs? He's certainly talented, but not being able to take a walk makes this likely an abberation rather than a breakout.

JH

For what it's worth, I work his 2001 value out at a rounded $25.

If this is a mixed league (which it seems to be with Derrek Lee and Ochoa among other players listed), I don't think his value is more than about $15. I'm saying this off the top of my head without looking at the values, but my (very) general is to half a players single-league value to get his mixed value. This I find only works for the medium range players in general, the guys who would go for around $20-30 in a single league auction, so Cruz would be close to this... In an AL only league, I'd put him around $30 though.

My gut feeling about Cruz is that he will be a late-blooming breakout player just like his father. Although his walk rate declined this season it hasn't been that bad over his career, and it seems to me that the "tools" players like Cruz are the ones most likely to improve rather than decline in performance when they reach their 30's.

Given the lack of interest he seems to be generating, I'd think the best approach would be to throw him back in the auction and then try to get him at a bargain price.

Yes, I do think that his OBP will improve with age, and quite possibly in dramatic fashion (I'm thinking along the lines of Ellis Burks here).

Putting my money where my mouth is, I am trying to acquire him in my own league (have been for a while now).

In our AL only league, Cruz is worth high-20's. I agree that he'll be a late bloomer - I saw lots of Jays games this year & he looked like he had a much better approach than in past years (i.e. looking for a certain pitch in a certain situation). I think Cito Gaston as hitting coach really helped him.

Having said that, I'd look for an avg. in the .260-.270 range the next few years. Combined with 30-30 numbers & he's gotta be a keeper at $13 in a mixed league.

My only concern in an AL league would be the likelihood of him getting traded. I gotta figure that at least one Jay outfielder will get traded this winter.