For nearly four years, I have avoided all that resembles football. 

My burnout for the sport wasn’t just total but a long time coming.  In the decade of fantasy football play, I never won a championship.  I never placed in the Top 5.  And, I never really enjoyed playing.  My spin for losing always consisted of growing up in Texas and being forced to play offensive line because of my size, and I was always jealous of the fullback for getting to run the ball.  I spun like Karl Rove, but nobody got killed a long the way.

2006, everything changed.  I don’t recall what clicked but my interest renewed.  And, the spin faded.  Unlike the past, my attraction didn’t consist of crunching stats like before.  I took more of a philosophical and sociological approach.  I looked at who the players are and what they are expected to accomplish.  I pondered the How and who do they have to help.  I looked at the quarterback, the line, and the coach of a team.  So with all my pondering, I came up with a quick five sleeper list and five players to avoid.

The Pleasant Surprises

1.         RB       Frank Gore – 49ers

Gore was the most touted runner to come out of Coral Gables, Florida.  Instead of running out of state, Gore stayed close to his family and attended the University of Miami (Fla.).  While a Hurricane, Gore’s tenure was injury marred.  Both knees were worked on, and concerns of a low intelligence test score made Gore available at the beginning of the third round in the 2005 NFL Draft.  After an impressive spring, Mike Nolan made Gore his number one back dealing Kevan Barlow to the New York Jets.

Health concerns will always plague, but Nolan’s system is a good fit for Gore’s smash and cash running style.  With quarterback Alex Smith possessing an excellent short yard target in rookie tight end Vernon Davis, Gore should find ways to make Swiss cheese out of many NFL defensive lines.  Take Gore before deciding on a handcuff reach.

2.         RB       Reggie Bush – Saints

I know.  I know.  You are saying to yourselves, “Reggie Bush is a sleeper?”  And, I can only respond with an explanation.  The majority of fantasy football owners hate taking rookies in a draft, and it is justifiable because most rookies’ fantasy value stinks.  Bush is the exception to the norm.

New Saints’ head coach knows what type of commodity is in the young Bush.  He was utilized all over the field – returning kicks and punts, playing slot and wide out, and (of course) running the ball.  Payton is modifying his playbook to highlight Bush’s talents, so Bush will score.  Draft Reggie and Deuce together, they are the best tandem in the NFL.

3.         TE       Vernon Davis – 49ers

The 49ers are team rebuilding.  Several experts couldn’t understand why Nolan and Gang took Davis, but his staff was right on the money.  They spent the sixth overall and a wad of bread to get the Duke into San Fran red and gold.  At 6’3 and 260 pounds, Davis is a load.  In high school, the Duke played everywhere including safety, slot, outside backer, and even returning kicks. 

He’s a rare pure H-back combination, and, like Reggie Bush, can be used in multiple scenarios all over the field.  Smith is getting better, and Davis is an excellent tool.  Draft late and keep as tight lipped as possible on this gem.

4.         RB       Willis McGahee – Bills

McGahee was another Miami Hurricane project with an injured past.  Unlike Gore, McGahee was more highly touted coming out of college even with a serious injury.  This year, McGahee has an unproven quarterback and a solid offensive line.  Dick Jauron remembers what it was like having a young signal caller (remember Cade McNown), and I believe Jauron will run McGahee until the wheels fall off.  So, draft McGahee as a number two back and hope Anthony Thomas doesn’t take too many snaps from him. 

5.         QB      Alex Smith – 49ers

I do not have a man crush on the 49ers, but three of the best sleeper picks in the NFL are playing for the Red and Gold attack.  Smith showed signs of brilliance last year, and he successfully exorcised the ghosts of Tim Rattay and Ken Dorsey.  Like Young and Montana, he can command the field and run the short game 49ers faithful love.  He’s still two years away from superstardom, but he’s a better bet than Brett Favre and Drew Bledsoe.

Those Guys To Avoid

1.         WR      Brandon Lloyd – Washington

Lloyd was dealt to Washington for a pair of draft picks.  This is a great case of out of the frying pan into the fire.  Health has always been a concern with Lloyd and it is a huge reason he slipped to the fourth round in the 2003 NFL Draft.  Both Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El are in the hot seat to help turn around a shaky Redskin team.  With Joe Gibbs, many of the Hog faithful are picturing a Smurf renaissance.  But, Mark Brunell is not the man and it is not looking like Jason Campbell as the Joe Theismann in him either.  At least if Lloyd’s stint in D.C. bombs, he has his hip-hop career and a really cool website: www.blloyd.com.

2.         WR      Antwaan Randle El – Washington

Unlike fellow receiver Brandon Lloyd, Randle El is now the main man in Washington and came from a much better situation to a worst scenario.  Randle El has been a heck of a kick returner and has exhibited some of the best speed in the entire NFL, but Mark Brunell isn’t what he once was and the return of Joe Gibbs does not resemble the epiphany Daniel Snyder envisioned.  Randle El signed a seven-year, $31 million deal to play for Snyder.  Hopefully, Gibbs’ bag of tricks includes some trick plays to highlight the man who is fifth on the all-time NCAA total yardage list but I doubt it.  At least he won’t end up like Kordell Stewart this year, but there is always next year and Snyder is not a patient man.  Until Washington gets a quarterback with some life, Randle El and Lloyd are an afterthought.  Avoid Randle El and Lloyd unless they fall really late and the receiver pool is weak.  Still, Michael Jenkins is a better bet. 

3.         QB      Brett Favre – Packers

Brett Favre is a pig-headed, over the hill, glory hog who I love with all my heart.  Favre has tantalized fans for over a decade, and he, like Joe Montana, provided some of the best moments ever on a football field.  Unfortunately, it is the end of the line and everybody knows it except him and the Cheeseheads.  I remember the demise of Troy Aikman.  Troy kept at it and kept getting banged up.  All the passes were intercepted or only receivable by the line judges.  Favre is tainting his memory and putting himself in a situation to get seriously hurt especially behind that joke Green Bay calls an offensive line.  Take Phillip Rivers, Drew Brees, or Carson Palmer before Favre, because “retread” really means “broken.”

4.         RB       Mike Anderson – Ravens

Fantasy owners gave up too soon on Jamal Lewis to rebound.  Mike Anderson went from a great situation in Denver with a coach who really needed him to a shaky existence to where he’s holding Lewis’ place every fifth or sixth down.  The former Marine was the crème of the crème in Denver until Mike Shanahan believed anyone could play tailback.  I bet anyone the Broncos’ first round pick in 2007 is a running back.  Anderson is a decent handcuff for Lewis, but do not draft him as your primary.

5.         RB       Derrick Blaylock, Kevan Barlow, Cedric Houston – Jets

Running games by committee pisses me off worse than closers by committee in baseball.  The running game is simple: a primary back, a third-down guy, and a fullback or H-back.  As a former offensive lineman, the line has to get use to the tempo of the guys in the backfield and rotating them out like color gels make life miserable for even the smartest big man.  The Jets line is young and needs a runner to grow with in time.  Barlow may be the best bet of the bunch, but still do not draft him before Frank Gore leaves the board.  Like Denver, the Jets will draft a runner in the first round next year.  If not, New York fans are going to grow very vocal.