1.                LaDainian Tomlinson, SD

The future Hall of Famer begins his 5th pre-season as the consensus #1 overall selection in fantasy football after finishing just shy of 2,000 total yards with 18 total TDs in 2007.  In addition, the Chargers offense is beginning to resemble a big-time firepower unit, with Chris Chambers onboard for a full season and Vincent Jackson primed for a solid year after a great postseason. Unless LT's knees give out on him, there's no reason to believe he decline this season.

2.                Brian Westbrook, PHI

Westbrook epitomized the term "beast" in 2007, rushing for 1,333 yards and grabbing 90 receptions for an additional 771 yards. In addition, he combined for 12 TDs. Thanks to his all-around versatility, Westbrook rarely has a bad fantasy game. If there's any slight against Westbrook, it's that he tends to get banged up and misses a game or two every season. But Westbrook is a stud in every sense, and should be drafted as such.

3.                Adrian Peterson, MIN

Last season's rookie extraordinaire has catapulted up draft boards into a Top 5 fantasy selection. Peterson is super-explosive - he broke the NFL record for yards gained in a single game - but also throws in clunkers every now and again. Peterson, though, is not without his faults - he was known as injury prone in college and indeed missed two games in '07; he does not catch the ball as often as some of the other Top 5 RBs; and Minnesota's QB situation is still so bad that teams can stack the box against Peterson.  Will all that matter to Peterson? Probably not, so buy accordingly.

4.                Joseph Addai, IND

Prior to last season, there were questions about Addai's increased role and his tendency to get banged up. But while Addai did play all 16 games and get 40 more carries then he did as a rookie in 2006, his stats stagnated a bit. He's been amazingly consistent, with virtually the same yardage and reception totals in both his seasons in the NFL, but the Colts also added Dominic Rhodes and rookie Mike Hart to the mix, so it seems that Addai's rushes will probably remain the same. Be a little cautious, but it is fair to expect similar totals.

5.                Steven Jackson, STL

The Rams suffered through a brutal 2007 season, and Jackson missed a considerable amount of time with a knee injury that butchered many a fantasy leaguer's season - many of whom drafted him as high as the #2 overall pick. Even upon his return, Jackson was a mere mortal, as he finished with just 6 combined TDs in 12 games. His receptions also fell tremendously, from 90 in 16 games in '06 to just 38 in '07 (12 games). So why is he still a Top 5 back? The thinking is 2007 was such a total all-around disaster that it can't possibly happen again.  Still, it seems there's more risk here than in the past that meets the eye.

6.                Frank Gore, SF

It was a tale of two halves for Gore, as he and his fantasy backers suffered through a miserable first half, but he rebounded to have a solid second half to regain his stature as a stud. He ran for just 435 yards and he was virtually absent from the passing game through the season's first 8 games, catching just 15 balls. But he increased those totals dramatically in the second half to finish with 1,100 yards rushing and 53 catches for 435 yards on the year.  Mike Martz also takes over as SF's offensive coordinator, so the hope is the Niners offense rebounds from a miserable 2007. If it does, Gore could jump into the Top 3.

7.                Marion Barber, DAL

Marion the Barbarian finally gets his due as a fantasy monster, but the Cowboys added some thunder to his lightning with first round pick Felix Jones. After shedding Julius Jones as his backfield mate, the rookie is not likely to be much more than a change of pace back in '08, giving Barber the opportunity to have a huge season. He's a TD machine - 10 TDs last season in just 200 carries after 14 in '07 in just 135 carries - and if he lands 250-275 carries, he could potentially be the breakout back a fantasy player needs to win their league.

8.                Clinton Portis, WAS

Portis had a revitalization of sorts in 2007, after he was royally downgraded by most after an injury-riddled '06 campaign. Furthermore, everyone expected super-sub Ladell Betts to steal playing time from Portis after Betts' breakout 2006, and for whatever the reason, that simply never materialized. Portis, in addition to playing all 16 games, had a career-high in receptions with 47, and the Redskin offense continues to seek improvement, with the addition of rookie wideouts Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly. For most of his career, Portis has been a Top 5 fantasy back, and there appears to be no reason to believe he won't come close again in 2008.

9.                Larry Johnson, KC

LJ had many detractors coming into the 2007 season, most of whom questioned his high carry total in 2006, and it turned out most of those negative prognostications proved to be on the mark. Johnson got hurt and missed 8 games, and when he did play he was sub-par (3.5 YPC).  The detractors also pointed to KC's offensive line, and those also proved to be correct - KC's line struggled mightily, and QBs Damon Huard and Brodie Croyle could do little right. While the Chiefs' line should be improved, it shouldn't be vastly so, and thus expect another trying year for the Chiefs and LJ. Sigh.....the 2005 and 2006 campaigns seem so long ago.

10.             Ryan Grant, GB

Most fantasy footballers didn't even notice the extremely minor pre-season transaction of the Giants dealing their 5^th string RB, Ryan Grant, to Green Bay for a 6^th round draft pick. But once Grant took over the starting role in Week 8 with a 104-yard effort vs. the Broncos, they definitely took notice. Suddenly the undrafted free agent out of Notre Dame became a fantasy powerhouse as he neared the combined 100-yard mark in all but two regular season games. He finished with 956 yards rushing and 30 receptions in just 9 games, capped by a monster 200-yd effort in a blizzard against Seattle in the playoffs.  And just as suddenly, Grant appears to be a 1^st or 2^nd round fantasy pick, which is cause for a lot of questions: Can an undrafted free agent continue to succeed? Is he a one-year wonder? Will he hold off former 2^nd round pick Brandon Jackson? Most importantly, how long will he hold out?  He certainly is a gamble to draft so high, but he could also pay big dividends:  Grant could potentially become a Top 5 back who could be had after many lesser RBs go off the board. He seems a slight risk as a clear-cut fantasy #1, so draft him if you're employing a 2-RB draft strategy.

11.             Marshawn Lynch, BUF

Lynch had a very solid rookie season for Buffalo in '07, rushing for 1,115 yards with 7 TDs, ending the year as the #12 fantasy RB. Overall it was a success for Lynch owners, but at the same time, he likely didn't propel many fantasy teams to their league championships either.

Lynch's biggest worry, though, is the fact he is under investigation for a hit-and-run. Regardless whether he goes to jail or goes through a trial, it could weigh heavy on his mind (or maybe not - after all, it seemingly didn't weigh too heavy when he allegedly left after hitting the person!) or he could possibly get suspended by the NFL.

If he gets past this incident, Lynch seems primed for a better year and could be a breakout if Buffalo's offense clicks in Year Two of the Trent Edwards era.

12.            Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX

 MJD didn't become the monster everyone expected of him in 2007 - in fact he even regressed from his 2006 form (see my article on MJD/Jerrious Norwood from last year's Fix) - but he still put up solid enough numbers to be considered a rising star in this league. His backfield mate, Fred Taylor, apparently drank from the fountain of youth last year and had his best season in ages, and while it can't be expected that Taylor will continue his excellent play, it shouldn't be entirely discounted either.  MJD, however, is a very dangerous weapon and Jacksonville will continue to find ways to exploit him.

Expect MJD to continue his role as the part-time back to Taylor, but due to his ability to catch passes and have long breakaway runs, he's an excellent fantasy RB.

13.             Willis McGahee, BAL

McGahee had a revitalization of sorts last season after suffering through a few mediocre campaigns. It's not so much that he excelled, but moreso that many RBs had sub-par years while he remained healthy and consistent. To his credit, he raised his receptions dramatically (43, 15 more than his career seasonal high) and had a 7-game stretch with TDs. But a highly-drafted RB usually should provide more firepower than McGahee offers.  And if Baltimore's offense was pretty mediocre last year, how much better will it get with either Troy Smith or rookie Joe Flacco at the helm?

It's not that he's a bad RB - far from it - but he's a middle-of-the-road runner who rarely has a bustout game that's being drafted extremely high.

14.             Jamal Lewis, CLE

Lewis went from fantasy doghouse to star runner in a year where many top RBs faltered.  After three crappy seasons, Lewis ran roughshod for 1,300 yards and 9 TDs, finishing as the #6 RB for 2007 after years at #25, #25 and #16. His 250 yards receiving, while far from great, was the most he's had since the 2002 season.

But the season wasn't all wine and roses for Lewis' owners: after a rip-roaring 215 yards rushing in Week 2, he had a miserable six game stretch that had his owners ready to bail. But seemingly out of nowhere, Lewis had 100+ combined yards in six of his last seven games to emerge from the fantasy doldrums and back into relevance.

It's hard to judge where Lewis stands now: is he the back who carried fantasy teams in the season's second half? Or is he an aging 29-year old warrior who had a dead cat bounce? We know he has little competition in Cleveland, and the Browns are a team on the rise with a much-improved offensive line.  In fact, it's possible to attribute his resurgence to rookie OT Joe Thomas' studly play, and there's no reason to think the line's play will decline.  But if his YPC declines to pre-2007 levels, look out below. Tread carefully here.

15.             Michael Turner, ATL

One of the offseason's prized free agents, Turner decided to move his tack to the transitioning Falcons, leaving many to question his 2008 value. The Falcons may have a rookie starter at QB and are already not one of the premier offensive teams in football, so who knows what Turner's fantasy value will be.

But on the other hand, he clearly has both the talent and now the opportunity, and we already know what he can do against NFL defenses (5.5 YPC career average). And his backfield mate, Jerrious Norwood, has had no problems putting up huge YPC averages in his two NFL seasons in Atlanta's offense. Turner, therefore, has a great chance to be one of the breakout RBs of the 2008 season, and at his current ADP in pre-season mocks, he's a great value.

16.             Brandon Jacobs, NYG

The first season of the post-Tiki era for the G-Men proved to be a boon to their running game, as the Giants battered opponents with a variety of effective rushers. Jacobs led the charge, but don't forget that Derrick Ward was very effective before fracturing a leg, and Ahmad Bradshaw emerged as a force late in the season.

While Jacobs looks more like a linebacker than a RB, his upright style of running leaves him prone to injuries and fumbles. And he was supposed to be their goal-line rusher, yet the team entrusted Reuben Droughns to this duty (in fact, Droughns led the team with 6 rushing TDs).

But Jacobs mesmerizes many with a 5.0 YPC average and a propensity for making big knockdowns of opposing tacklers, but he may in fact be very overvalued heading into 2008.

The Giants will use their rushing quartet again, and it's possible Jacobs and Ward split time as the main backs with Bradshaw in on 3^rd down and Droughns in at the goal line.  If this situation happens - which is very likely - then Jacobs is going too high on drafts to justify that limited opportunity. But if he emerges as the clear main rusher and Ward stays on the bench as a backup, Jacobs could approach 1,500 yards rushing. I'd go with a 75% chance with the latter, however.

17.             Reggie Bush, NO

Just about three years ago, Texan fans booed their brains out that their team drafted Mario Williams and not Reggie Bush with the 1^st overall pick in the 2006 draft. Now, that debate isn't even close and Bush probably wouldn't even go in that draft's Top 10.

Bush is a better fantasy player than an NFL player. He clearly is talented, but he just doesn't seem to do much with the enormous amount of touches he gets. His 3.7 YPC is awful and his 5.7 yards/reception would make a fullback blush. And he doesn't score touchdowns, either.  But he does catch a lot of passes, so his value is far greater in reception leagues than in straight fantasy leagues. But with 157 carries and 73 catches, it's hard to believe he didn't crack 1,000 combined yards.

The Saints also have a nice amount of depth at RB - the potential return of Deuce McAllister; as well as Pierre Thomas and Aaron Stecker, so Bush likely won't build upon the 150ish carries he's gotten both years he's been in the league. To increase his value, he'll need to start breaking off big runs and increasing those dismal carry/reception averages. Bush has the talent to pull it off in his 3^rd NFL season, but he's still a better pick as your RB2.

18.             Willie Parker, PIT

Parker's value took a bunker buster-sized hit on Draft Day, when the Steelers used their 1^st round pick on stud RB Rashard Mendenhall. There's no denying what this means - Parker will not approach the 300 carries he received the last few seasons and will not sniff the field on goal line plays. While it was smart by the Steelers to ensure their rushing game was top-notch both in standard and short yardage situations, Parker's backers probably think otherwise.  And remember he's also coming back from a fractured leg that ended his 2007 season in Week 16.

The last year Parker shared the load - 2005, when he split carries with Jerome Bettis - he landed 250 carries, 71 less than last year. And while Parker has the breakaway speed to be a major home run threat, his TD chances are all likely to be from greater than 10 yards out.

Parker could be a steal with a 4^th round choice, but he's clearly no longer the first round stud from the last couple of seasons.

19.             Earnest Graham, TB

After Cadillac Williams' season-ending injury in Week 4, Graham had a golden opportunity as the full-time starter, one which he nearly blew. The Bucs were unhappy with his production in his first few games, so they traded for the Chiefs' Michael Bennett, and many fantasy leaguers basically gave up on Graham (including yours truly). But then the undrafted free agent decided his time wasn't up yet, and rattled off a streak of seven of eight  100+ combined yardage games and led the Bucs to the playoffs.

As the Cadillac looks likely to remain in the shop or be still hobbled for at least the season's first half, the Bucs went out and signed former Buc legend Warrick Dunn to split time with Graham. And while Graham became a force, it's far from a guarantee that Graham continues his climb. But he has the opportunity, and that's half the battle.

20.             Edgerrin James, ARZ

What was more surprising this offseason: the Cardinals deciding not to sign a backup who could challenge James, or the fact they bypassed nearly every back in a RB-heavy draft? While James had a solid year and improved his YPC by 0.4, he still was nothing special and is a far cry from his salad days in the Colts backfield. In fact, he had just three 100-yard rushing games and had a 5-game stretch with zero TDs - meaning that despite gaining over 1,400 yards combined, he was a fantasy disappointment with his plain vanilla ways.

But the fact the Cardinals will apparently allow him to get most of their carries means James is a lock for 1,200+ yards rushing again, as long as he stays healthy. So draft James as an inexpensive RB2 and hope he adds some hot fudge and sprinkles to his vanilla.

21.             Rudi Johnson, CIN

Johnson was a perennial late first round fantasy pick until the wheels fell off last season, when the injury bug acted up and Rudi was a shell of his former self. Which Rudi shows up in 2008? He'll turn 29, had a heavy workload so he's probably nearing the end of his days as a starter, but Cincinnati didn't bring in anyone to challenge him. Preliminary reports out of Cincy camp have been that Rudi is in tremendous shape, so put that in your back pocket. Regardless, you could likely grab Johnson in the middle of your draft and if he returns to the 1,400-yard form of 2004-2006, you got a major steal.

22.             Darren McFadden, OAK

The 1^st RB selected in this year Draft, McFadden has fantasy players salivating with the possibility of another Adrian Peterson-like breakout. D-Mac had a great college career, but fantasy footballers shouldn't etch in stone that he's the next "All Day."

The Raiders have a solid running attack as it already stands - Justin Fargas, who had a breakout year; 2007's 2^nd rounder Michael Bush, a stud at Louisville; and potentially even LaMont Jordan. And the Raiders have already publicly stated that McFadden is likely to be more of a "Reggie Bush-type" meaning he'll likely share time with Fargas but be more active as a pass-catcher.

Does this bode well for his fantasy status for '08? That's a bigger question - and McFadden is clearly a question mark for this year.

23.             Ronnie Brown, MIA

Brown was having a huge breakout season when he went down with a major knee injury in week 7 - his 5^th consecutive 100+ combined yard game. The Dolphins proceeded to lose 15 games and then Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano came in, and the word is now that they want Ricky Williams to split time if Brown makes it back. Brown is still recovering from major knee surgery, and there's no guarantee he can make it back to the way he was last season. He clearly is a risk to come back at a lesser level, or even miss a significant amount of time. Draft with caution.

24.             Laurence Maroney, NE

Maroney clearly is a talented runner, and he has a great pedigree as a top collegiate rusher and 1^st round draft pick. But his biggest problem is he plays for an offense that can score at will from the air, and has an all-around weapon as their 3^rd down back (Kevin Faulk), so Maroney seemingly is a second-thought in that potent offense.

Maroney has yet to top 200 carries in a season, and that's clearly due to the Pats success through the air. But his career 4.4 YPC average means Maroney is no slouch, and should NE decide to incorporate more of a ground game, Maroney seems up to the task.

25.             Selvin Young, DEN

Young is another RB who became the default starter when the former starter was released. Travis Henry wore out his welcome in Denver, and Young, who brashly proclaimed he would gain 2,000 yards this coming season, emerged as the likely starter over rookie Ryan Torian, Michael Pittman and Andre Hall. While Young could be a steal, just remember how fickle Denver is with their RBs, who they treat as a commodity more than any other position. Regardless, Young is a great mid-draft selection.

26.             Thomas Jones, NYJ

Jones suffered through a miserable season in 2007 as the "answer" to the Jets' prayers, but things are looking up for the 9^th-year veteran. The Jets revamped their offensive line by bringing in shutdown tackle Alan Faneca and Damien Woody, and hope former 1^st rounder D'Brickashaw Ferguson bounces back from a mediocre campaign. He is in danger of potentially losing carries to the explosive Leon Washington, and is encroaching on 30 years old, but he could be had relatively cheaply and that could pay dividends as your RB2.

27.             LenDale White, TEN

Reggie Bush's backfield mate at USC had a solid season in 2007, rushing for 1,100 yards and 7 TDs - numbers Bush would envy. But White also didn't excel, rushing for a mediocre 3.6 YPC, and is unusually slow for a RB - which probably answers the question why the Titans drafted another RB, and not a receiver, with their 1^st round pick in 2008 (East Carolina's blazingly fast Chris Johnson).

White will clearly lose carries, but it's more likely former 2^nd rounder Chris Henry loses out more. But if White can make more of his carries than he did in 2007, it will be "matza-matza", as they say in my old neighborhood.  Tennesee is a run-first team, so White should continue to have solid value as a RB2 or bye-week starter.

But, please note, he also can have games where he registers nothing more than a blip on your fantasy live scoring page, posting six games of under 50 combined yards. But if the post-season is any indication, Maroney seems primed for a bigger year. Make sure he's on your radar screen.

28.             Jonathan Stewart, CAR

The rookie will be paired with DeAngelo Williams in the Panther backfield, but the current thinking is that he'll be their main rusher with Williams as the change of pace back. Since the Panthers want to employ more of a power rushing game then they've showed in recent years, this makes Stewart a solid value play for the 2008 season.

29.            Kevin Smith, DET

Smith is another rookie who enters a great personal situation, as Detroit's backfield is a total mess. Tatum Bell is the presumed starter, with Brian Calhoun and Artose Pinner also fighting for playing time, but Smith could emerge as the lead dog with a solid pre-season.

30.             Matt Forte, CHI

Forte has a great opportunity as a rookie to make a major impact both in fantasy and the NFL. The Bears grew tired of Cedric Benson's act and released the 1^st round bust last month, and Forte finds himself the possibly the starter by default. With Kevin Jones, Adrian Peterson and Garrett Wolfe in the backfield, he also may not have too much competition for carries either.

Rookies can go either way, but Forte should be able to prove himself after a few games, and is a great value in the middle of your draft who could emerge as a reliable fantasy starter.

31.             Julius Jones, SEA

The Seahawks dumped former MVP Shawn Alexander for Jones and co., and while it seemed clear that Alexander was running on fumes, it's uncertain whether Jones could thrive given the fact he was a starter in Dallas for four seasons with little success.  Still, Seattle's intention is to make Jones the starter, and you could do worse for a mid-round draft pick.

32.             DeAngelo Williams, CAR

just when it looked like Williams would have the role to himself, the Panthers decided to get back to the basics of a power running game and drafted Oregon stud Jonathan Stewart with their 1^st round pick. At this point, it remains to be seen how their roles will shake out, but the rumors are that the Panthers believe Williams is more of a change-of-pace back than a full-time starter. But it will depend on Stewart's recovery from a toe injury to judge how things will go. Watch this situation carefully, but Williams could either be, based on his Average Draft Position, a good value or a useless bench player.

33.             Fred Taylor, JAX

Fred Taylor is like a fine wine - he gets better with age. As most RBs begin a steep decline in their 30s, Taylor had one of the best seasons of his great career in '07, rushing for 1,200 yards with a 5.4 YPC average and rolled off five consecutive 100-yard days in crunch time (Weeks 12-16) to earn, unbelievably enough, his first All-Pro appearance.

But will the good times continue to roll for Taylor? He shares the backfield with an explosive weapon who threatens to choke off more carries; his effectiveness came mainly from his boffo YPC average;   and his usage in the passing game is almost non-existent.

Taylor is a great story, but he's probably better suited to be your RB3 than a fantasy starter.

34.             Jerious Norwood, ATL

With Michael Turner in town, Norwood again remains the change of pace back despite an amazing 6.0+ YPC average in both of his pro seasons. With 201 career carries, Norwood has rushed for 1,248 yards, which is unbelievable. Since Turner will take most of the carries, expect Atlanta to use Norwood more as a receiver, as Turner does not catch the ball well out of the backfield (just 11 catches in 4 seasons). If they start rookie QB Matt Ryan, expect Norwood's value to increase as Ryan uses his checkdown receiver more than a veteran would.

35.             Rashard Mendenhall, PIT

The surprise 1^st round selection of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mendenhall gave Fast Willie Parker's value a sledgehammer-sized whack. Parker will still get the majority of the carries, but Mendenhall will replace the now-departed Najeh Davenport as the short-yardage specialist and 3^rd down back. In Pittsburgh's explosive offense, Mendenhall could easily surpass Davenport's 700 combined yards and 7 TDs, making for a solid RB4 and potential late-season fantasy starter.

36.             Felix Jones, DAL

Felix Jones replaces Julius Jones as Marion Barber's compatriot in the Dallas backfield. Since Jones split time at Arkansas with fellow 1^st rounder Darren McFadden, Jones probably is OK with playing the sidekick. With Julius out of the way, Barber becomes the starter, but expect Felix to get many touches, enough to keep Barber fresh enough to steamroll defenses. Jones makes for a great RB4.

37.             Chester Taylor, MIN

Once Adrian Peterson began running roughshod in the season's first few games, Taylor's days as a starter were history, despite solid numbers in the role. Since Peterson went on to rumble through opposing defenses, Taylor will just be the change-of-pace back and injury replacement - thus he's better off being a Peterson handcuff than anything else.

38.             Ahman Green, HOU

Green appears to be winding down his solid career, as numerous injuries have taken their toll on the former Pro Bowler. With Chris Brown and rookie Steve Slaton also in the fold, Green is not worth anything more than a late-round flyer in most leagues.

39.             Tatum Bell, DET

A surprise returnee to Detroit, Bell found himself in his seemingly usual spot - the doghouse - last season. A once-talented runner, Bell apparently has done himself in with complaints and trade requests, pissing off numerous coaches, coordinators and general managers along the way. But he's in a good situation in Detroit, as only rookie Kevin Smith and oft-injured Brian Calhoun stand in his way.  He does have a career 4.8 YPC average, so he is talented. And he's just 27 years old. So could this be his year? That's possible, but it's just as likely Bell could be playing his way out of the NFL. He's worth a shot as your RB4.

  40.        Kevin Jones, CHI

Jones was signed by the Bears to either split time with or mentor rookie Matt Forte. The good thing is Chicago is a run-first squad; the bad things are a) we don't know how healthy Jones actually is; and b) how effective Forte will be, Jones is a total crapshoot.  He could end up on Chicacgo's PUP list as well, so watch this situation carefully.

  41.         Pierre Thomas, NO

With Deuce McAllister experiencing more pain in his knee, the door is beginning to open for Thomas to get more touches. If Reggie Bush continues his mediocrity, expect NO's 2^nd back to become more relevant, and if that's Thomas, well you can possibly have a steal on your hands.

42.             Deuce McAllister, NO

Can Deuce come back from yet another major knee injury? If he can, and there's no guarantee that he'll be able to or come back with any effectiveness, he should have no problem beating out Reggie Bush as the Saints' primary rusher. He's also 29, so don't expect greatness if he does come back, but he's not much of a risk with a late-round fantasy selection. As of July 27^th, Deuce was experiencing more knee pain, so caveat emptor.

43.             Adrian Peterson, CHI

The other Adrian Peterson emerged with a new role and some potential value in 2008 after Cedric Benson was unceremoniously dumped by the Bears in June. Besides Peterson, only rookie Matt Forte is of consequence as a rusher on the Bears roster, so Peterson could be a surprise. While he was underwhelming as a runner last year (3.4 YPC on 151 carries), he also did grab a huge 51 catches. If Forte can't secure the job or if the Bears decide to go with a true RBBC, Peterson could be a steal.

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