1.      Peyton Manning, IND - No, I'm not on drugs.  Manning is the model of consistency.  He has just one season below the 4,000-yard mark since 2000 while the guy you expected to see here had one before last year's career season.  Manning's touchdown total has been below 26 exactly never during his 10-year career.  Marvin Harrison isn't what he once was, but Reggie Wayne has assumed that #1 role while Anthony Gonzalez is transitioning into that #2 spot while Harrison winds down his career.  Tight end Dallas Clark has emerged to fill the gaps left by not having a completely established second receiver so Manning's weaponry remains sharp.  Bank on a 4,000-30 season from Manning in his sleep with the threat of a 4,500-35 looming.  He is a late first-early second round pick, unless it's a larger league which would raise his status a few spots. 

2.      Tom Brady, NE - Manning hadn't topped 30 touchdowns in the three seasons prior to his 49-touchdown season in 2004.  He followed it up with 28 in 2005.  Brady had never been above 30 touchdowns in six years as a starter prior to last year's record setting 50-touchdown onslaught.  Adding one of the best receivers the game has ever seen was a huge part of Brady's excellent season and Randy Moss hasn't gone anywhere, but even a very nice 4,000-35 season takes 96 fantasy points off of his 2007 performance.  He will likely regress this season and disappoint the throngs of fantasy owners taking him in the first round.  That said, he will still be a tremendous fantasy asset with gaudy numbers by season's end.  He is going to go in the middle-first round in just about every league, but ideally he's a late first-early second rounder. 

3.      Carson Palmer, CIN - For real, drugs aren't my thing, I promise.  I am well aware of the fact that Palmer's QB rating & touchdown total have dropped each year since 2005 while his interceptions have gone up over the course of the same period.  I think these are the things that will give him some nice value come draft day as he slides a bit, but by season's end I think he will end up as the league's 3^rd-best signal caller.  Chad Johnson will be the key and I think he is ready to shut his mouth, play some big time football and score double-digit touchdowns for only the second time in his career.  Johnson has a boatload of pride and he's watched Randy Moss and Terrell Owens re-assert themselves as the league's best despite being on the wrong side of 30.  It is Johnson's turn now and coupled with T.J. Houshmandzadeh will result in a career year for Palmer.  You should be able to acquire him in the third round and he could slip to the back end of that round which would just make him a tremendous value. 

4.      Tony Romo, DAL - The red flag with Romo is the interception total at 19, but when you realize that eight of them were confined to two games, it becomes a bit easier to swallow.  Obviously those games were duds that put Romo owners behind the eight ball that week, but it is much better than getting gashed by two or more interceptions every other week.  Romo had 12 multi-touchdown games and seven 300-yard performances.  The lack of a bona fide #2 receiver is a tad worrisome, but Jason Witten is football's best tight end while Patrick Crayton was solid last year and should improve again this season with another season under his belt.  Romo won't need Crayton to be a true #2 with Witten capable of splitting out wide from time to time in addition to being a great outlet over the middle.  He likely won't last past the late-second, early-third so if he's your guy then be prepared to go early. 

5.      Drew Brees, NO - On October 7^th, the Saints were 0-4 and hadn't scored more than 14 points in any of their games.  Brees had one touchdown pass against nine interceptions and the Saints had already had their bye week so there was no reprieve in sight, either.  The season was looking like a bust, but in the final 12 games Brees had another nine interceptions, but this time it was against 27 touchdowns.  Brees had fewer than 260 yards just three times during that excellent stretch.  Marques Colston remains Brees' top weapon, but the recent addition of Jeremy Shockey makes life even easier for the duo entering 2008.  That elusive 30-touchdown season might finally be in store for Brees in 2008.

6.      Ben Roethlisberger, PIT - After a disastrous 2006 for Big Ben that saw him throw 23 interceptions, fantasy owners that rolled the dice for the 2007 season were rewarded handsomely.  After seasons of 11 and nine interceptions prior the 2006 debacle, it wasn't a surprise to see Roethlisberger jump back down to 11 last year, but the 32 touchdowns that accompanied it were a very pleasant surprise for his fantasy owners.  Rookie receiver Limas Sweed gives Roethlisberger the lengthy red zone target he craves while Hines Ward has tremendous possession skills and Santonio Holmes (entering the mystical 3^rd year) is evolving into a #1 option that can spread the field.  Did I mention that Big Ben also has a prominent target at tight end in the form of Heath Miller?  While no single player from this collection of targets may have a huge individual year, they will join together to give Roethlisberger a brilliant fantasy season. 

7.      Matt Hasselbeck, SEA - There is nothing terribly eye-catching about Hasselbeck and the seasons he has put up since becoming prominent on the fantasy landscape in 2003.  He is good for a 3,400-25 season that will include some huge games and a very rare implosion.  Even if Deion Branch isn't back at full strength, Nate Burleson and Bobby Engram offer a formidable 1-2 punch.  Hasselbeck had just one touchdown-less game last year while nearly reaching 4,000 yards.  Julius Jones enters the picture as the primary back behind Hasselbeck with Shaun Alexander having been released.  While Jones might not become a premier back for the Seahawks, he will enhance the passing game with his ability to catch out of the backfield.  He will more than make up for the lack of a strong tight end in the lineup. 

8.      Derek Anderson, CLE - Anderson was the 2007 fantasy darling after a huge breakout season in just his second in the league.  He had 17 touchdown passes by his seventh game during week eight.  It was a tale of two halves however as he threw for more than 185 yards just once in the final four weeks and had a 9-to-10 TD-to-INT ratio over the course of the final seven weeks.  I can understand why some have mounted cases against rating Anderson too highly, but even if you question his talent as elite you still have to love his arsenal.  Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow became dominant threats at wide receiver and tight end in their third seasons and there is nothing to suggest that either enjoy fluke seasons.  Burner Donte Stallworth offers a different skill set than possession receiver Joe Jurevicius, but will likely absorb those 600-700 yards while Jurevicius battles injury. 

9.      Marc Bulger, STL - The 2007 season was an absolute bust for the Rams and especially Bulger.  If his stock had not been raised so high after a brilliant 2006 season, then 2007 might not have brutalized so many teams.  Placing a bet on Bulger for the 2008 season should probably fall somewhere in between the past two seasons; he is unlikely to rack up 4,300 yards, but he is equally unlikely to have a negative TD-to-INT ratio, too.  Isaac Bruce is gone, but at 36 he won't be missed much.  Torry Holt remains and should enjoy another spectacular season, but a great deal of Bulger's success will be determined by Drew Bennett's ability to bounce back from a huge disappointment. 

10.  Donovan McNabb, PHI - McNabb only missed two games last year.  Not bad when you consider that he missed 13 in the previous two seasons combined and therein lays the crux of McNabb.  If he can stay healthy, he's a starting fantasy quarterback.  He has an underrated group of talent around him.  Despite a lack of big name wide receivers, he can spread the ball around to five or six targets to accumulate his numbers.  It is unlikely that we will ever see another season like the one where he had Terrell Owens roaming the field, but a dive back into the 20-TD pool along with continued protection of the ball (13 or fewer INT every year) will drive a quality season for McNabb.

11.  David Garrard, JAX - Though considered a huge sleeper in some quarters, Garrard's lack of top notch pass-catching talent around him is a reason for concern.  That said, his own ability and decision making can help mask the lack of talent split out for him on the line of scrimmage meanwhile Maurice Jones-Drew can emulate Brian Westbrook and become a 65+ reception player in the backfield.  Garrard shouldn't be relied upon as a game changer (zero 300-yard games in the last three years), but rather someone you surround with quality everywhere else and let his consistently solid production make up for the inevitable stinkers your running backs and receivers will experience over the course of a season.  With a full season of games, Garrard will top 3,000 yards and approach the 25-touchdown mark. 

12.  Matt Schaub, HOU - Injuries derailed his breakout season, but he was on his way to exactly what the Texans were hoping for out of the former Atlanta Falcon.  He was in 11 games, but truly logged full time in just eight of them.  Schaub topped 250 yards in five of his eight full games and was at 225 or above in the other three.  The key to his success, aside from his own health, will be that of his favorite target, Andre Johnson.  Johnson was also knocked off the track of a career year by injuries, but still managed eight touchdowns in nine games.  Second year tight end Owen Daniels has emerged into a viable outlet over the middle with 97 catches and eight touchdowns in his two seasons.  

13.  Brett Favre, To Be Determined - I am so sick of hearing about this story especially because so little has happened yet it's the lead story seemingly every day.  ESPN never hesitates to display that they are remarkably lame and the over exposure of this as a legit story might be their crowning moment.  Anyway, back to the fantasy gridiron.  Wherever Favre ends up, he will be ready to play and should once again be a fantasy force.  With so much uncertainty regarding where he will be, it is very tough for early drafters to take the plunge (understandably), but his return is a matter of where not if at this point in the off-season so draft the aged stud with confidence. 

14.  Jon Kitna, DET - The fear with Kitna is that the departure of Mike Martz will sap his fantasy production.  I will not try to make some backwards convoluted case to the contrary, because a 4,000-yard season this year is no lock.  However, I do think the shift to more of a balanced offense will actually help Kitna from a standpoint of fewer interceptions.  What good is 4,068 yards if you can't even top 1.00 on a TD:INT ratio?  Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson offer Kitna one of the best 1-2 punches in the game and the two should both top the 1,000-yard mark with a boatload of touchdowns.  The periphery receivers aren't too bad either, but Williams and Johnson are Kitna's keys to a quality season top-to-bottom. 

15.  Eli Manning, NYG - He doesn't have the skills of his brother and he probably goes a few spots earlier than he should simply because he is related to Peyton, but he's not too bad in his own right.  He still struggles with interceptions as his TD:INT ratio has actually gotten worse year-to-year since 2005.  Given his postseason performance, it seems like things have come along for him on the mental aspect of the game and that is why I am comfortable feeling like he can make an improvement in his performance during this year's regular season.  It may not seem like much, but cutting his multiple INT games from six to three would do wonders for him. 

16.  Jake Delhomme, CAR - He has been a really good quarterback since becoming a full-time starter back in 2003.  Propelled by 29 touchdowns, 2004 is his standout season, but each of his four seasons (including a shortened 2006) has been very fruitful for fantasy owners.  He was on track for a fifth season of productivity before injuries cut it short after just three games.  Unfortunately for Delhomme, it appears that his best target is insane as Steve Smith was involved in another altercation with a teammate.  Smith's availability to Delhomme will be at least as important as the health of Delhomme's elbow.  D.J. Hackett was acquired from Seattle, but I don't think he's an outright #2 receiver.  Dwayne Jarrett's growth will be key to how big of a season Delhomme can have this year. 

17.  Philip Rivers, SD - He would be rated significantly higher if he hadn't torn his ACL just eight months ago and his best target, Antonio Gates, wasn't being considered for the physically unable to perform list.  A trip to the PUP list would leave Gates on the sidelines until at least week six.  All indications are that Rivers is healthy and ready to play at full strength, but it will be a whole lot different when contact fires up in training camps.  He's a heavy injury risk, but with a clean bill of health, he's an upper-teens quarterback ready to breakout with a great set of weapons around him. 

18.  Jason Campbell, WAS - Now with 20 games under his belt, the safety net is gone for Campbell.  It's put up or shut up time as he has some experience, a solid line ahead of him and a deep group of weapons that includes two heralded rookie receivers in addition the three veterans already there in the form of Chris Cooley, Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle-El.  Campbell will take one of the biggest steps among quarterbacks this year as he puts some separation between his touchdown and interception totals after a weak 12-to-11 mark last year.  Finally the Redskins won't be a bust of a team and it will be due in large part to a smart leader under center.  Campbell is a great #2 quarterback to target that could end up as your #1 a few weeks into the season.  Consider him sort of a draft-n-follow. 

19.  Jay Cutler, DEN - I wasn't particularly sold on Cutler even with Brandon Marshall ready for a full season and now that his off-the-field issues have interfered, I am even less sold on Cutler as a top option at quarterback.  Absent Marshall, Cutler is left with the likes of Keary Colbert, Darrell Jackson and Brandon Stokley as his primary option through the air.  Tight end Tony Scheffler had 512 yards and five touchdowns from week seven on last year raising his stock on draft lists everywhere, but he functions best when Marshall is drawing double teams and opening things up over the middle for him as opposed to a top option.  Cutler is still just 25 years old and coming off of his first full season, so there is upside potential.  Just don't invest too heavily-the season is too short. 

20.  Aaron Rodgers, GB - This guy probably buys Pepto Bismol by the barrel to deal with all this off-the-field drama.  He says all the right things and so does the organization as they claim to be firmly behind him as their future, but he's remarkably short on experience and he was not even that highly thought of coming out of college.  He has got a ton to prove and if the Brett Favre high school drama wasn't enough, the Packers draft Brian Brohm and less-threateningly Matt Flynn to breathe down Rodgers' neck.  He is going to have his struggles as any quarterback is his first full season would, but he has a veteran receiver in Donald Driver to lean on as well as a burner in Greg Jennings.  Despite the pair of rookies looming on the bench, he will have a long leash (unless things totally 180 and Favre comes back to GB) because this team should be in the running for a division title again. 

21.  Matt Leinart, ARZ - Is this the year?  It's hard enough to be successful when you have the weight of a franchise's future heaped upon your shoulders.  Harder still when that franchise has been saddled with ineptitude for so long.  And completing the trifecta, it's even harder still when you have the very capable Kurt Warner and his doppelganger wife praying for your failure so he can come in and save the day... again.  Such is life for Leinart.  Of course, he was the man at USC as part of college football's biggest powerhouse for four years prior to the NFL, so his life doesn't quite open him up for a pity party.  It's time for him to perform.  He has a negative TD:INT ratio for his career spanning 17 games.  That's not going to work when the aforementioned Warner posted a +10 in the same category a season ago.  Leinart should get every opportunity to win the job and then when he gets on the field, he has the best 1-2 punch in the game with Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, so there is no excuse to fail.  He is a nice upside backup, but that's just another of saying you'd better have a reliable starter. 

22.  Vince Young, TEN - During his rookie season, Young was the guy you'd watch every Sunday and think, "Man, I gotta have him on my fantasy team."  He was so dazzling on the field and his comeback wins incorrectly led watchers to believe he was a viable fantasy player.  It makes sense in theory... you see someone succeed at a sport on television, it stands to reason that he'd be ideal for your fake team that is supposed to emulate that same sport.  Young had a negative TD:INT in that rookie year, but seven rushing touchdowns really helped offset, especially in 4-pt QB TDs because he was grabbing those 14 extra points by running it in.  He was again below 1.0 in TD:INT last year, but the disparity was much larger and the rushing TDs many fewer.  He topped 250 yards passing just once in final seven weeks of the season last year.  He will improve this year (how could he not?), but the weaponry around him remains thoroughly uninspiring and all the questions about his throwing mechanics are being answered... negatively. 

23.  Chad Pennington, NYJ - The obvious jokes about his arm strength, or lack thereof, aren't that pertinent for this discussion.  The fact is that his nine games last year weren't that bad.  He struggled at times, as expected, but he wasn't a total flop and could present some value as a backup in 2008.  The Jets' line should be markedly improved and able to give Pennington a lot more time to find something and Jerricho Cotchery has #1 ability despite being listed as their #2.  It won't be a powerhouse by any stretch of the imagination, but the Jets offense should surprise many and Pennington could have some pretty big games.  A primary backup or spot-starting second option in leagues that start two QBs should be a good role for Pennington.  Of course, Brett Favre could ruin all of that if he's traded to New York, but those talks seem to have cooled as of this writing.

24.  Jeff Garcia, TB - His elevated age (38) and the looming possibility of Tampa Bay being Favre's final destination earn Garcia this ranking.  Garcia was very efficient last year and post a great 3.3 TD:INT ratio, but it only resulted in 13 touchdowns total.  Avoiding interceptions is great, but that low of a touchdown count renders Garcia as a backup without question and perhaps even waiver wire fodder. 

25.  Chris Redman, ATL - In four full games during the last five weeks of the season, Redman had a 300-yard game and two others above 250-yards with a 10-to-3 TD:INT ratio.  Sample size caveats are in order here, but that's a nice stretch.  They went out and got a feature back in Michael Turner which should take pressure off of Redman as he bridges the gap between now and the Matt Ryan era.  Roddy White broke out in a big way last year while Michael Jenkins and Laurent Robinson have some ability as well. 

26.  Alex Smith, SF - So that's what Norv Turner can do.  After an abysmal rookie season (1-to-11 TD:INT), Turner worked his magic with Smith and showed great gains with nearly 3,000 yards and an even TD:INT ratio.  Turner left the Niners for the head coaching job in San Diego and apparently took Smith's skill with him.  He fell below a 50% completion rate and managed just two touchdowns in seven games.  At 24, this fourth season is a huge one for Smith: can he pay dividends on his #1 overall draft status or is he a bust that was the top pick by default as opposed to immense talent?  His targets are nothing to write home about, but the key will be the protection up front (obvious, I know).  They traded their first pick of the 2008 draft to get tackle Joe Staley and he needs to make great strides to justify that move.  Remember, that pick went to the Patriots and turned into a #7 overall.  Only the deepest leagues will see Smith rostered with any fervor in hopes of watching a #1 overall make good.

27.  Trent Edwards, BUF - He has got the job for now, but J.P. Losman is waiting in the wings and the real story is that neither of them is a legitimate fantasy option outside a 14-team AFC North-only league.  I love Lee Evans as a top receiver, but there is ton for Edwards to prove before he enters viability regardless of Evans' talent.  Edwards broke the 234-yard mark just once and even though he had a four touchdown game, it was against Miami in December and he still only had 165 yards during that game. 

28.  Tarvaris Jackson, MIN - I'd like to pretend that this is another Favre-induced ranking and that Jackson would be higher if it was known he'd be the starter in Minnesota, but then I'd be lying to you readers.  Jackson just isn't very good at quarterbacking a football team.  Not yours, not the Vikings, not even your drafted franchise on Madden for Xbox 360.  He doesn't rate dead last because he could be a full-time starter and he has a tremendous running back behind that could feasibly open up the field and make him slightly less sucky. 

29.  Kyle Boller, BAL - Yes, he still plays.  Rookie Joe Flacco won't be ready to take over from day 1, so the reins will likely be placed in the hands of Boller, for better or worse.  Boller notched at least one touchdown in his final five starts of the season, but he also had seven interceptions during that same span rendering him virtually useless since he only put up one strong yardage total in those games (279 on 11/18). 

30.  JaMarcus Russell, OAK - He didn't even see the field until week 13 and that has cascaded down to this season and cut into the expectations you can realistically have for him even though he should be the starter.  A decent running game and some viable targets should alleviate some of the pressure on Russell's shoulders, but he is just too much of an unknown to be worth anything in non-keeper leagues this year. 

31.  Rex Grossman/Kyle Orton, CHI - Does it really matter who I put here?  They are virtually the same guy likely to put up similar, moribund numbers that have little use in anything but 18+ team leagues.  One will take the reins in training camp and then I guess that is the guy you want if you're in that big of a league and hate winning. 

32.  Brodie Croyle, KC - Whether he hangs onto the job or relinquishes it back to Damon Huard, the quarterback in Kansas City isn't someone to be interested.  There are a handful of backups, some that don't have a clear path to the field, that are much better options than Croyle.  In his nine games last year, Croyle topped out at 217 yards. 

33.  Josh McCown/John Beck, MIA - As with the Bears' situation, this is a fluid battle that producers no real winner regardless of the outcome.  If you're left drafting these guys as anything more than a last roster spot flier, then you're season is already beyond repair. 

On the Radar:

34.  Kurt Warner, ARZ - Always a Leinart mess up away from being that week's top waiver pick up.

35.  Billy Volek, SD - Rivers' injury concerns make Volek a must handcuff for those investing in the San Diego QB market.  He would know how to use those weapons.

36.  Kellen Clemens, NYJ - Fragility is a bigger concern than arm strength with Pennington meaning Clemens could see legitimate time.

37.  Luke McCown, TB - Garcia is old and hasn't been the model of health for some time. 

38.  Shaun Hill, SF - Two of his three games were over 100 in passer rating while the other was 83.9.

39.  Brady Quinn, CLE - Anderson loves to throw interceptions and last year could very well have been a fluke.

40.  Sage Rosenfels, HOU - Had some awesome games, but had some bombs as well. 

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