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Since the stats for Wide Receivers and Tight End usually
don’t tell the full story as it does for running backs and quarterbacks, you must
look a little further inside the numbers to gauge talent and risks.
With a RB, you can tell his use in the offense by the number
of carries he gets. And for a QB, if he doesn't throw a lot of passes, he
better damn well be effective. But with a WR, the officially sanctioned stats
don't tell us how many times a QB threw his way, and taking it further, how
many of those passes he actually caught.
These two stats can tell us a lot: who the QB (and team) are
looking at to gain the yards through the air; and secondly - and more
importantly - who can be depended on to actually come through for the team.
Let's take a look at some important numbers:
TARGET LEADERS FOR
2007 AT WR
- Brandon
Marshall, DEN.....170
- TJ
Houshmandzadeh, CIN....169
- Larry
Fitzgerald, ARZ.....167
- Derrick
Mason, BAL.....164
- Chad
Johnson, CIN......160
- Randy
Moss, NE..........159
- Reggie
Wayne, IND......156
- Braylon
Edwards, CLE....153
- Torry
Holt, STL...........149
- Steve
Smith, CAR........148
No real longshots here, as most of this list consists of
elite level receivers. Marshall
erupted in his 2nd year, and with a 2nd year QB at the
helm in Jay Cutler, clearly they've developed a rapport. Only Marshall's maturity level can corrode this
relationship.
Seeing Derrick Mason here is a good sign he can be an
effective WR3, as while he doesn't have a high YPC average or score a lot of
TDs, he's targeted so much he's a consistent fantasy point option.
But when we look at who's making the grabs, some different
names pop up:
RECEPTION %
LEADERS FOR 2007 AT WR
- Wes
Welker, NE...................77.2%
- Anthony
Gonzalez, IND.......72.7%
- Jabar Gaffney, NE................72.0%
- Anquan
Boldin, ARZ............71.7%
- Ike
Hilliard, TB.....................71.3%
- Bobby
Engram, SEA.............70.2%
- Andre
Johnson, HOU...........69.8%
- Marques
Colston, NO..........68.5%
- DJ
Hackett, SEA....................68.1%
- Mike
Furrey, DET.................67.8%
Many slot receivers dot this list, but Gaffney, Colston
& Hackett are players to think about since they're flankers with sure
hands.
On the other hand, let's take a look at the WR's with the
poorest reception %.
TOP 10 WORST
RECEPTION % AT WR
- Justin
McCareins, NYJ............41.3%
- Demetrius
Williams, BAL.......42.5%
- Jerry
Porter, OAK....................42.7%
- Darrell
Jackson, SF..................44.2%
- Keary
Colbert, CAR.................45.7%
- Drew
Bennett, STL.................45.8%
- Devard
Darling, BAL...............46.1%
- Troy
Williamson, MIN............47.4%
- Devery
Henderson, NO.........47.6%
- Marty
Booker, MIA...............47.6%
Should it be surprising that SEVEN of these receivers
changed teams in the off-season, led by the stone-handed McCareins, who drew
the wrath of Jets fans everywhere by single-handedly losing a couple of games? Probably not. Obviously, a WR who can't catch
has very little use for an NFL team.
But here's some additional surprisingly bad % rates:
Ted Ginn, Jr......47.9% -- Miami's
new starter?
Lee Evans, BUF.......48.9% -- from Pro Bowl to toilet bowl
Plaxico Burress, NYG.....50.0% -- redeemed himself in the Super
Bowl
Calvin Johnson, DET.....50.5% -- best prospect in years? Let's
chalk this up to bad Kitna passes.
Chris Chambers, SD.......51.2%
Vincent Jackson, SD.......51.3% -- long year for Chargers fans
(and Philip Rivers?)
So the fantasy football player needs to determine: were the
high drop rates of this next group caused more by the wide receiver, or by bad
passes from the QB?
Reviewing targets and drop rates can help you screen your
potential WR selections.
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