2K8: WR Drop Rates Print E-mail
Written by Ed Reaven   
Friday, 08 August 2008

Since the stats for Wide Receivers and Tight End usually don’t tell the full story as it does for running backs and quarterbacks, you must look a little further inside the numbers to gauge talent and risks.

With a RB, you can tell his use in the offense by the number of carries he gets. And for a QB, if he doesn't throw a lot of passes, he better damn well be effective. But with a WR, the officially sanctioned stats don't tell us how many times a QB threw his way, and taking it further, how many of those passes he actually caught.

These two stats can tell us a lot: who the QB (and team) are looking at to gain the yards through the air; and secondly - and more importantly - who can be depended on to actually come through for the team.

Let's take a look at some important numbers:

TARGET LEADERS FOR 2007 AT WR

  1. Brandon Marshall, DEN.....170
  2. TJ Houshmandzadeh, CIN....169
  3. Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ.....167
  4. Derrick Mason, BAL.....164
  5. Chad Johnson, CIN......160
  6. Randy Moss, NE..........159
  7. Reggie Wayne, IND......156
  8. Braylon Edwards, CLE....153
  9. Torry Holt, STL...........149
  10. Steve Smith, CAR........148

No real longshots here, as most of this list consists of elite level receivers. Marshall erupted in his 2nd year, and with a 2nd year QB at the helm in Jay Cutler, clearly they've developed a rapport. Only Marshall's maturity level can corrode this relationship.

Seeing Derrick Mason here is a good sign he can be an effective WR3, as while he doesn't have a high YPC average or score a lot of TDs, he's targeted so much he's a consistent fantasy point option.

But when we look at who's making the grabs, some different names pop up:

RECEPTION % LEADERS FOR 2007 AT WR

  1. Wes Welker, NE...................77.2%
  2. Anthony Gonzalez, IND.......72.7%
  3. Jabar Gaffney, NE................72.0%
  4. Anquan Boldin, ARZ............71.7%
  5. Ike Hilliard, TB.....................71.3%
  6. Bobby Engram, SEA.............70.2%
  7. Andre Johnson, HOU...........69.8%
  8. Marques Colston, NO..........68.5%
  9. DJ Hackett, SEA....................68.1%
  10. Mike Furrey, DET.................67.8%

Many slot receivers dot this list, but Gaffney, Colston & Hackett are players to think about since they're flankers with sure hands.

On the other hand, let's take a look at the WR's with the poorest reception %.

TOP 10 WORST RECEPTION % AT WR

  1. Justin McCareins, NYJ............41.3%
  2. Demetrius Williams, BAL.......42.5%
  3. Jerry Porter, OAK....................42.7%
  4. Darrell Jackson, SF..................44.2%
  5. Keary Colbert, CAR.................45.7%
  6. Drew Bennett, STL.................45.8%
  7. Devard Darling, BAL...............46.1%
  8. Troy Williamson, MIN............47.4%
  9. Devery Henderson, NO.........47.6%
  10. Marty Booker, MIA...............47.6%

Should it be surprising that SEVEN of these receivers changed teams in the off-season, led by the stone-handed McCareins, who drew the wrath of Jets fans everywhere by single-handedly losing a couple of games?  Probably not. Obviously, a WR who can't catch has very little use for an NFL team.

But here's some additional surprisingly bad % rates:

Ted Ginn, Jr......47.9% -- Miami's new starter?

Lee Evans, BUF.......48.9% -- from Pro Bowl to toilet bowl

Plaxico Burress, NYG.....50.0% -- redeemed himself in the Super Bowl

Calvin Johnson, DET.....50.5% -- best prospect in years? Let's chalk this up to bad Kitna passes.

Chris Chambers, SD.......51.2%

Vincent Jackson, SD.......51.3% -- long year for Chargers fans (and Philip Rivers?)

So the fantasy football player needs to determine: were the high drop rates of this next group caused more by the wide receiver, or by bad passes from the QB?

Reviewing targets and drop rates can help you screen your potential WR selections.


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