There are certain draft positions that have “pre-ordained” selections and it’s hard to avoid the fate that awaits you there. But your first round pick, more often than not, decides your next couple of picks, so it makes sense to go in with a decision tree (editor’s note: that’s an MBA term) to help make your pick, while your league-mates are digging through well-ruffled fantasy magazines, sweatily speed-reading through 6-month old reviews while they’re on the clock. You can just ask those owners to stop what they’re doing and make the check out to you. 

The below assumes a 12-team league:

DRAFT SPOT #1

There's no decision tree here - take LT, crack open your beer and smile. Don't even think of anyone else. If he has a bad year, so be it - you took the player with the greatest odds of ending up with the most fantasy points in 2008 with the least amount of risk.

The much bigger decision for you is who to take at the 24/25 turn.

With LT in the fold, do you lock up the league's best backfield by grabbing the 15^th or 16^th best back on the board, or do you wait another 24 picks? The shark move this year is to wait on the 2^nd RB - draft two elite WRs and don't look back.  By starting a team with LT, possibly Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Smith, your leaguemates will already be in a major hole.

DRAFT SPOT #2

The decision in the 1^st round is Adrian Peterson or Brian Westbrook. Peterson is the sexy pick, but Westbrook with his amazing pass catching ability represents the lesser risk. Whomever you pick, you probably won’t go wrong. 

In Rounds 2 or 3, you’re in a similar position to the #1 spot, but it hinges on the 1^st rounder. If you take Peterson, hedge his injury history and youth by going with a 2^nd RB, perhaps Brandon Jacobs, Reggie Bush or Jamal Lewis, and then grab an elite WR in Rd 3. If you take Westbrook, go for the 2 WRs. 

DRAFT SPOT #3

You’re getting whatever is left between Westbrook and AP, which means follow the above roadmap. The players available in rounds 2 and 3 won’t change dramatically. 

DRAFT SPOTS #4 & #5

The 1^st round pick is a decision between Steven Jackson and Joseph Addai. In either case, while both represent an elite talent, both are a notch below the Big 3.  The bigger decision will be in Round Two, where potentially Peyton Manning will still be on the board. Do you take Manning or let him slide? That’s a tough call. The 2^nd round RBs are not “awesome,” and you could potentially have a great RB/QB/WR foundation by round three. With the major dropoff at QB, taking Manning could be a solid gamble. By your round 4 pick, it’s conceivable the Top 5 QBs will be gone, so if Manning is already off the board, the shark pick would be to take Tony Romo is Rd 3. 

DRAFT SPOT #6

This is the first position in Round 1 where you should even think about not drafting a RB. Frank Gore is in position to be the next RB to be selected, but Randy Moss or even Tom Brady could be a viable option.  Passing on Brady is advised, so the decision is Gore or Moss, and Gore would be the selection with less risk. 

With the depth of RBs, waiting until Round 3 to take your 2^nd RB is advised unless Marshawn Lynch or Willis McGahee are still available. If so, take whichever of those two are there in Rd 2 and grab a WR in Rd 3. If they’re not around, go with an elite WR or Manning in Rd 2 and another WR or Tony Romo, depending on your previous pick, for Rd 3. 

DRAFT SPOT #7

If Gore went at #6, which is most likely, Moss looks to be the most viable selection. If Moss went at #6, Gore or Larry Johnson would be solid picks, with Gore having the clear edge. 

Marshawn Lynch, Peyton Manning or Braylon Edwards are the best 2^nd round decisions, and you should go with your heart here – they’re all fine and logical picks. 

The 3^rd round pick depends on your 2^nd rounder, and the names on the board could be Tony Romo or Drew Brees, an elite WR, or a RB ranked 16-21. Chances are the WR or QB represents the greater value. 

DRAFT SPOT #8

Pick #8 represents the 1^st real major decision of the draft, as Moss and Gore are both likely to be off the board. This should be the first spot someone considers Brady, but the better pick would be one of the 3^rd tier RBs – Larry Johnson, Marion Barber, Clinton Portis or Ryan Grant. 

Whomever you choose, the 2^nd round pick is of greater importance. It’s definitely possible that you may just miss out on a 1^st tier WR, so this should be the first position where a RB-RB strategy makes the most sense.  Pairing your 1^st rd back with Marshawn Lynch or Willis McGahee appears to be the best fit, but a fallback of Braylon Edwards or Peyton Manning is a solid solution. 

In the 3^rd round your decision, depending on what you chose in Rd 2, should be between a 3^rd tier RB with breakout potential (Michael Turner, Darren McFadden, Laurence Maroney) or one of the last few elite WRs. 

DRAFT SPOTS #9 & #10

The same decisions exist here as they do at #8 – do you draft Brady or one of the four RBs mentioned above? Taking the RB is advised, but Brady is very tempting here. 

In round 2, grabbing one of the Tier 1 WRs is advised (Wayne, Owens, Edwards) or take one of those 4 RBs who may still be on the board along with Lynch or McGahee. 

In round 3, another big decision is at hand – do you dare pass on a 2^nd RB if you took a WR in round 2? This year, that may be a solid strategy, as the RBs expected to be on the board all have major question marks. The shark strategy would be to pass on the 2^nd RB and take your 2^nd WR or QB in Rd 3. 

DRAFT SPOTS #11 & #12

This is the real Brady dilemma – do you bite the bullet and take a QB in Rd 1? Do you go with the one of the last 3^rd tier RBs? Or do you take an elite WR? 

The best solution would be to take one of each, whatever you choose. It seems the best WRs on the board, and/or Brady, exceed the skills of the 4^th tier RBs, so taking one of Barber, LJ, Lynch or Grant along with TO, Wayne or Brady makes the most sense. 

In round 3, only Willie Parker or Ronnie Brown are the likely backs to be on the board who would make sense as far as RBs go, and both have major question marks – so if you’re risk adverse, grab the 2 backs in Rd 1 & 2. If you can wait – and you can this year -- take the best QB on the board (Brees or Palmer, most likely) or the top TEs (Witten or Winslow) along with one of the final elite WRs (Boldin, Holt, Marshall, Welker or Burress). Grab your #2 RB in the round 5/6 turn and hope a Thomas Jones, Edgerrin James or Jonathan Stewart lasts. One of them definitely should. 

This is just meant to be an outline, and many drafts will stray from this, but going into the draft with an idea of the decisions you’ll have will give you an upper-hand over many of your leaguemates.

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