2K8: Double Trouble Print E-mail
Written by James Nees   
Thursday, 07 August 2008

Doubling refers to the practice of intentionally drafting both the QB and WR of the same team. That way, if the WR scores, so does the QB. It can work very well. Peyton Manning to Marvin Harrison was a staple for years. Last season, Tom Brady to Randy Moss and Tony Romo to Terrell Owens were back bones of many league champions. But like a lot of strategies, there are dangers as well.

It often happens by accident. For example, an owner goes into a draft with no real plan, and winds up with a QB and WR from his favorite team. If that team is New Orleans, well and good -- Drew Brees to Marques Colston should work very well, and when Colston catches two scores in a game, yuour chances of a win just increased tremendously. But what happens when you have an off week for your dynamic duo? When the favorite target gets shut down, often the QB is having an off week as well. And what about during a bye week? Both players are necessarily out at the same time. As you can see the "buts" and "ands" can add up -- and that assumes a good pair.

 

Doubling is a high risk/high reward strategy. Like many high risk ventures, the key is value. If you draft Brady in the first round and Moss in the second, your fantasy team is then tied to the Patriots and there is very little chance of changing that. What if you get Steven Jackson in the first round, Peyton Manning in the second -- should you go for Reggie Wayne in the third? Absolutely. In a 10-team league, you will have landed solid value for your first two picks, and Reggie Wayne is a steal in the mid 20s. Doubling is not something to avoid, though you would immediately want to start thinking about how to deal with the bye week.

 

What if you you’re able to draft Larry Johnson at #9, Marion Barber at #16, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh at #33 in a 12 team league? You have Carson Palmer rated at #50, and he's sitting there for your pick in the fourth, at #40. Do you pull the trigger and reach a little, or wait sixteen picks for another chance? The answer is not cut and dried, but usually it is best not to reach. Perhaps you should pass on Carson Palmer, but not take Ben Roethlisberger either. Big Ben would be a pick at or close to value, but he does not represent a bargain. Taking Jason Witten or Matt Forte represents good value drafting as well, and leaves your options open for the next round. Then, when you pick at # 57, Palmer will be good value. If he is off the board, there will still be good options available for QB. On the other hand, suppose you have Frank Gore and Larry Johnson slides to you in the second round, then get Housh as before. Your situation is materially stronger, and you might decide to gamble a little and take Palmer. Just remember that gambles favor the house.

 

A better use of the strategy is later in the draft. When some players are taking handcuffs, you can give extra consideration to the receivers of the QBs you drafted. If you own Carson Palmer, a flier on Jerome Simpson makes some sense. It is like a handcuff in a way, since Simpson will only play regularly if Palmer loses one of his top two WRS. If you own a WR with a weak QB, such as Ronald Curry or Roddy White, consider drafting his QB to cover a bye week. Since you are already at a disadvantage, the extra risk is less likely to beat you, and if you get lucky, it doubles the impact.

 

Here are the top 25 QBs by Average Draft Position and their “Double Down” partners.

 

1 Tom Brady NE – Also getting Randy Moss is probably impossible, but you should consider Wes Welker.

2 Peyton Manning IND - Wayne will be too pricey, but Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez later on makes sense.

3 Tony Romo DAL - Romo and TO won a lot of leagues last year. This year you should settle for Patrick Crayton.

4 * Drew Brees NO - Brees and Colston is a standard of this kind of play.

5 Carson Palmer CIN - This is tricky, because of Chad Johnson's attitudes. CP and Housh is risky. Getting CP and CJ is really volatile, but with huge payoff if it works.

6 * Ben Roethlisberger PIT - Santonio Holmes is a breakout candidate. Targeting both is a viable plan.

7 Derek Anderson CLE - This might work backwards. If you have Braylon Edwards, consider Anderson.

8 Matt Hasselbeck SEA - Seattle is a good place to grab a handful of WRs and see who plays

9 * Donovan McNabb PHI - Kevin Curtis is cheap. Do the deal.

10 David Garrard  JAX - See Seattle. Garrard will make plays, but none of the WRs is better than tier 4

11 Jay Cutler DEN - Cutler to Brandon Marshall is a boom or bust to rival Palmer to Johnson. After Marshall is a cast of washouts. 

12 * Marc Bulger STL - If you are going to play Torry Holt, you might as well get his QB.

13 * Eli Manning NYG - This is a good one. Plaxico Burress' injury history will make him cheap.

14 Matt Leinart ARI - In this case Larry Fitzgerald clearly comes first. For that matter, so does Anquan Boldin.

15 Jason Campbell WAS - Pair him to Santana Moss for a bye week.

16 Jake Delhomme CAR - Steve Smith is the man of this pair. Bye week only.

17 * Matt Schaub HOU - Andre Johnson is a stud. Kevin Walter is next best. Schaub is viable late pick up.

18 Jon Kitna DET - Like Cincinnati, which WR will make the plays? If you play either, Kitna is a possibility.

19 * Philip Rivers SD - Rivers and Vincent Jackson both scream upside.

20 Vince Young TEN - Yech. If you have VY, it's for his feet, not his arm.

21 Aaron Rodgers GB - Jennings, Jones, Driver, Nelson. Who makes plays? Bye week stuff.

22 * Jeff Garcia  TB - Garcia and Joey Galloway can make a decent roll of the dice, if both are even playing.

23 Trent Edwards BUF - If you have Lee Evans, maybe get Edwards.

24 Alex Smith SF - No. Not even on a bye.

27 * Tavaris Jackson MIN - TJ and Bernard Berrian could make beautiful music.

28 Brodie Croyle KC - Of the top 20 WRs, Dwayne Bowe has the lowest rated QB. For a bye week, better than             several pairs above.

31 Chad Pennington NYJ - See Clemens. QB controversies are a way to get cheap possibilities.

49 Matt Ryan ARI - Why not? He's the future, and it might come soon.


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