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Brian Johnson breaks down the top twenty tight ends on NFL teams.
Jason Witten, DAL
At 96 receptions, 1,145 yards and 7 TDs, it’s safe to say last year
was Witten’s best season of his career to date, and it’s very likely those
numbers will never be topped. Even with a regression, he’s still the safest
pick at the tight end spot this year.
84 receptions-880 yards-6 touchdowns
Kellen Winslow, CLE
These projected numbers assumes
he plays the full season, and he has managed to not miss a contest the past two
seasons. We’ll take the under this year on him playing the full season.
75-1010-6
Tony Gonzalez, KC
When you’ve averaged 83
receptions, 992 yards over the past three years (his numbers are equally
impressive if you go back five years as well), Mr. Gonzalez can make a claim to
being one of the most consistent tight ends in the game. Here are three certainties: death, taxes and
Tony Gonzalez finishing as a top-5 tight end.
77-940-5
Antonio Gates, SD
Unless Gates shows progress from
off season toe surgery by mid-August, our projections for him stand. If he looks anywhere close to usual studly
self, add 10 receptions and 125 yards and 2-3 TD’s. Gates has been the
undisputed #1 tight end the past 3 seasons but is no lock this year due to his
injury. He’ll likely be overvalued in most drafts.
65-800-6
Chris Cooley, WAS
Cooley is the last of the top
tier tight ends. In three seasons as a starter, Cooley has not had less than 57
receptions, 734 yards or six TDs. There
has been some concern about the coaching change in Washington negatively impacting Cooley’s
numbers but don’t bet against Cooley. Also, the assumed continued maturing of
QB Jason Campbell will only help Cooley’s totals.
62-740-6
Dallas Clark, IND
Last season he posted career highs in yards and TDs (616 and 11). Considering
he averaged 4 TDs in each of the previous three seasons, the odds are against
him having 11 TDs again this year. Also, he has yet to play a full 16 games
season. The yardage figures are for real but don’t go expecting double digits
in TDs this year or you’ll be disappointed.
60-640-7
Todd Heap, BAL
If Heap plays a full 16-game season, he’ll be a top-5 tight end, but
that said, he isn’t exactly the most durable player in the league. If fully
healthy (gulp), he’ll produce in the area if 74/750/6. He could be a draft day
bargain based on last year’s washout.
64-640-5
Tony Scheffler, DEN
Is Denver’s #2 receiving option next to All-Pro Brandon
Marshall. He posted 49/549/5 last year -- and that’s without catching a pass
until week 5. He’ll likely produce top-10 value without the typical cost of a
top-10 pick. He represents a solid value.
54-640-5
Jeremy Shockey, NYG
Jeremy Shockey has never
finished lower than 11th among tight ends in fantasy points in any
season during his career. The fact the Giants seemed to flourish without him
last year and the fact he seems to want out of New York, doesn’t bode well, however, and
post-season stud Kevin Boss looms large. He’s a bigger risk than usual this
season.
61-640-4
Owen Daniels, HOU
Last year, he went for 63/768/3
but Andre Johnson (likely) won’t miss half the season this year. Although, QB Matt
Schaub and the passing game will continue to develop, Daniels poses a threat to
take a slight step backward statistically this season. Keep in mind a step back likely still lands
him in the top-10 tight ends (and a step up from last season would put him in
the top-5 but top-10 is a more realistic finish).
55-630-4
Vernon Davis, SF
In his second season last year, Davis posted solid 52/509/4
numbers. With all the hype surrounding this guy you would think he would be a
top-5 tight end by now, however. In his defense, San Fran’s offense was
dreadful, and he was one of the few bright spots. With new coordinator Mike
Martz in town, does this mean continued goodness for Davis? Martz likes to pass but hasn’t
utilized the tight end position in St. Louis or Detroit -- but he also hasn’t had any one (supposedly) as talented
as Davis.
Still, it’s possible he does not continue to develop, or he is under-utilized
in Martz’s scheme, and he hovers around the same numbers as last year. Don’t
overpay.
49-580-4
Alge Crumpler, TEN
The Bad: how wretched are his
knees? He was banged up almost all of 2007 and there are serious question marks
about his health coming into this season.
The Good: the Titans loves the tight
end and Crumpler will certainly be the beneficiary.
The Very Good: the Tennessee
wideouts are mediocre at best. Crumpler seems to be in an ideal situation and
represents arguably the best value in the top-20, if he can stay healthy.
50-540-4
Heath Miller, PIT
2007 was somewhat of a boom year
for Miller as he hit career highs in receptions (47), yards (566), and TD’s
(7), although his previous bests were 39/459/6. But Miller has the following
question marks:
Big Ben bested his previous TD
total by 14 last year. If he returns to the norm, that could mean less for
Miller;
Pittsburgh was ranked 22nd
in rushing touchdowns last year, which means more red-zone runs and less
passing attempts. The addition of rookie Rashard Mendenhall exemplifies this
approach.
That said, Miller offers much
upside and he is certainly one of the safer later round tight end picks.
41-510-6
Zach Miller, OAK
The tight end is an
inexperienced QBs best friend. The fact Miller came on late in the season bodes
well for the 2008 campaign. In QBs JaMarcus Russell’s lone start in 2007,
Miller’s line was 8/84. Perhaps a taste of things to come?
47-510-4
Donald Lee, GB
With a new QB at the helm, I
think Lee’s numbers from last year (48/575/6) take a bit of a hit. Rodgers
isn’t as good as Favre but this may mean that the inexperienced Rodgers looks
to the TE position a little more. He
should provide enough value to sneak into the top-15 tight ends.
40-490-4
Randy McMichael, STL
The departure of Issac Bruce and the fact the awful Rams offense is
due to rebound this year (see a healthy Orlando Pace) likely means an uptick in
the numbers for McMichael, but don’t go hoping for his past boffo Miami-type stats
(65/600) or you’ll be sorely disappointed.
42-455-3
Ben Watson, NE
The breakout some fans have been
waiting for – and many projected for last year -- has yet to happen. Watson has
missed games in each of the past four seasons but seemed to benefit from New England having so many weapons last year, especially
around the goal line. At worst, he’ll be a top-20 TE, at best a top-10 TE.
Draft accordingly.
35-400-5
L.J. Smith, PHI
After a lost season in 2007 due
a sports hernia and groins injuries, let’s remember Smith averaged 55/646 in
the 2005 & 2006 seasons, so if healthy, he could be top-10 bound. He can be
had for a song at the end of the draft and provide excellent value.
42-420-3
Greg Olsen, CHI
The good news is the Bears
wideouts are awful, the bad news the QB situation is still awful, and as a
result Olsen could be the #1 or #2 receiver on the team. Does that math make
sense?
43-450-3
Marcedes Lewis, JAX
Lewis made strides in his second
season. The Jags upgraded the receiver position in the offseason, which could
negatively impact Lewis but it shouldn’t hurt him too much. He seems to have
talent but will it translate into better numbers?
40-420-3
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