1.         Adrian Wilson, ARZ

If he’s fully healed from his Achilles injury, he should rebound from a subpar 2007. The Cardinals’ switch to a 3-4 scheme last year didn’t seem to help matters either. He averaged 80 solo tackles per game from 2003-2006 (with 3 sacks and 2 picks thrown in for good measure). Let’s hope the scheme change last year has little impact on this year’s numbers. He should be top-5, if healthy.            

75 solo tackles-3 sacks- 3 interceptions

2.         Kerry Rhodes, NYJ              

He was the #2 safety in 2006 but his tackle numbers dropped off considerably once LB David Harris was inserted into the lineup in 2007. On the positive side, Rhodes’ interception numbers went up as his tackle numbers declined. Look for Rhodes’ tackle numbers to bounce back up to the 70 solo range.

70-2-5

3.         Sean Jones, CLE                              

He’s quietly averaged 70 stops and 5 interceptions over the past two years. With consecutive top-10 finishes and being the best IDP player the Browns have to offer, there is no reason to think Jones won’t be top-10 again and quite possibly top-5.

70-1-5

4.         Gibril Wilson, OAK  

There is always a bit of uncertainty when a player changes teams but when Stuart Schweigert moved to Oakland, he averaged 80 tackles in 2005 and 2006  -- so if he could do it, Wilson should be fine in his new digs.                 

76-1-3

5.         Nate Clements, SF

He managed 77 solos last year after only 55 the year before. Things could go either way this year for Clements, either he posts similar numbers to last year or teams start to avoid him al together if Walt Harris play slips significantlyHe should still produce at a high level for at least one more year, and he hasn’t missed a game in seven years.  

72-1-4                        

6.         Bernard Pollard, KC   

Had 74 solos stops as a rookie in 2007 and seemed to improve in the second half of the year. Looks to be even better in 2008.

75-2-2

7.         Michael Lewis, SF                   

Fell out of favor in Philly in 2006 but seemed reborn in San Fran in 2007 despite playing behind one of the best linebackers in the league. He’s not flashy but doesn’t miss many games and is good for probably 75 solos.        

75-1-2

8.         Roman Harper, NO                 

Bounced back from an injury in 2006 to post 75-4-3 in 2007. The upgrades to the Saints defense, most notably LB Jonathan Vilma may limit his upside but should still be good for 70+ tackles and few big plays here and there.    

72-2-2

9.         Bob Sanders, IND      

The oft-injured Sanders managed to stay relatively healthy last year (playing in 15 games) and posted 71-3.5-2. Stat to note: in the past two even numbered years Sanders has played in a total of 10 games. 2008 is an even numbered year. Be wary.

72-2-2

10.       Champ Bailey, DEN                

He can be counted on for 65-72 solo tackles, but his interception numbers plummeted from 10 in 2006 to 3 last year. Take the tackles, and know you’ll get some interceptions -- how many is the question.     

66-0-5

11.       Leigh Bodden, DET                             

Managed 76 solo tackles and 6 picks for Cleveland in 2007 (playing all 16 games) and was acquired by Detroit in the offseason. The good news is that the Detroit defense should be on the field a lot this season. The bad news is that he has missed 21 games over the five seasons prior to 2007. The projection assumes he plays the full season in 2008.  

70-0-4

12.       Oshiomogho Atogwe, STL      

Has averaged 65 solo tackles over his last two seasons so it’s reasonable to expect similar numbers this year. His interceptions jumped from 3 to 8 last year so that might come back to earth a bit in 2008.         

65-1-4

13.       Charles Tillman, CHI               

He hasn’t played a full season in four years. His tackle numbers have also declined over the past three seasons, which is another cause for concern. Figure on him playing 14 or 15 games and if things fall right, chalk up 68 tackles and 4 INTs. If his 2005 is his ceiling (85-1-5 in 15 games), then last year is his floor (66-0-3, in 15). Expect better than last year but don’t expect a repeat of 2005.

68-0-4

14.       Darrelle Revis, NYJ     

He was impressive as rookie with 74 solos and 3 INTs. His tackles likely won’t increase as teams begin to avoid him, but the picks might go up slightly. Call it a wash, less tackles but more picks.                     

68-0-4

15.       Antoine Winfield, MIN

A perennial 70-80 solo tackle guy but he was riddled with various injuries in 2007, which caused him to miss 6 games. At 31, how much is left in the tank? More importantly, was last year an indicator that he is starting to break down, he’s hoping it is not. 75-0-2       

16.       Chris Harris, CAR                   

He was acquired by Chicago prior to last season and managed 76 solo tackles, but he had 8 forced fumbles which artificially inflates his value. Expect the same tackle numbers but don’t count too much on the big play stats.       

74-0-2

17.       Atari Bigby, GB           

He came out of nowhere last season to be one of the better IDP options (66-0-5). His tackles dropped as the season wore on but he managed 4 of his INTs over the last 4 games. If he can be a little more consistent over the full season, he should equal or better last year’s numbers. Not to mention, he's Jason Collette's favorite defensive player!

68-0-3

18.       LaRon Landry, WAS              

Will make the switch to FS this year, which likely means his solo tackle total of 63 from 2007 won’t increase much (if at all) but he could intercept around 4 passes. Be wary of drafting DBs based on interception numbers since they fluctuate quite a bit.      

65-1-3

19.       Marcus Trufant, SEA

Was a monster last year with 78 solo tackles and 7 interceptions after two prior mediocre years (55-1-1 in 2005 and 60-0-1 in 2006). To be fair, in 2006 he was bothered by a persistent shoulder injury. No way he repeats the 2007 tackle numbers but still should be solid, just don’t reach on him.   

66-0-3            

20.       Troy Polamalu, PIT

Which Troy do we get this year? The one who was a monster in 2004 (68-1-5) and 2005 (74-3-2)? Or the one who has missed 8 games over the past two seasons due to injury? If he is back 100%, he will be top-10, at worst he will be top-25.

64-1-2

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