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The term 'breakout' is as overused in fantasy football as
'sleepers.' These are not guys who are coming out of nowhere, but are the guys
who should significantly improve on their 2007 numbers and outperform their
Average Draft Position.
Matt Schaub, QB,
Texans
Schaub's numbers in his first season as the Texans'
quarterback were dampened as he missed five full games and parts of three
others due to injury. Schaub's stud wideout, Andre Johnson, was also out of the
lineup for half of the eight full games that Schaub did play. When the duo was
together, however, they were in sync, with seven of Schaub’s nine touchdowns
coming in those four games, as Schaub averaged a little over 200 yards per
game. For the season, he topped 250 yards per tilt on average with a healthy
Johnson in the lineup. With the Texans focusing on the offensive line this past
off-season and the hiring of OL-guru Alex Gibb, Schaub should get better
protection. Add in a running game that's still suspect and Schaub becomes a QB
with nice upside in 2008.
Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos
Cutler finished strong, with multi-touchdown performances in
four of Denver's
last seven games. Nearly all of Cutler's best games were at Invesco Field at
Mile High, which means added maturity should help him elevate his play at even
the toughest road environments in seasons to come. Brandon Marshall has emerged
in his own right as a big-player receiver (although watch for a possible Marshall suspension) and
tight end Tony Scheffler also has demonstrated his abilities as a solid receiver.
New assumed starter at RB Selvin Young also has a lot of value catching the
ball out of the backfield. If one of Darrell Jackson, Keary Colbert or Samie
Parker can hold their own as a WR2, Cutler will have a nice group of receivers
to spread the field. Lastly, the diagnosis of Cutler's Type 1 diabetes is very
important as Cutler lost about 30 pounds during the second half of last season
and claims he felt sluggish. The identification and maintenance of his illness
will help Cutler going forward. Cutler stands a good chance to join the top-10
QB's in 2008.
Thomas Jones, RB, Jets
There's no two ways about it; Jones was terrible in his
first year with the Jets. Jones didn’t score his first touchdown until Week 13
and by the time he added another in Week 17 it was far too little, far too
late. However, let's not forget what Jones did prior to 2007: 22 touchdowns and
4,007 yards from scrimmage across three seasons with the Bears. Working in
Jones’ favor is a revamped offensive line that still features two of the
brighter young talents in the league in Nick Mangold and D’Brickashaw Ferguson,
as well as free agent acquisitions Alan Faneca and Damien Woody. The explosive Leon
Washington may see some third-down work but not enough for you to be afraid to
draft Jones. This offense produced 15 rushing scores in 2006 so you know the
possibility is there, and Jones will make a fine RB3 for you this season, at
worst.
Ryan Grant, RB, Packers
Many will think that Grant's 2007 campaign was a bit flukish
and the loss of Brett Favre will put more pressure on the young back, but his
monster finish to the 2007 fantasy season, on top of some flashes of greatness
in the playoffs, suggests this kid is the real deal. He is strong, quick and
pounds the hole. The Packers offensive attack and blocking scheme are perfect
for Grant’s strengths and style of play. Grant will give you Top 5 RB numbers
this season, so don't hesitate to make him your RB1 this season.
Michael Turner, RB,
Falcons
Turner, an unrestricted free agent this off-season, lands in
Atlanta and
finally gets the opportunity to be the big dog. In a backup role with the
Chargers, Turner averaged 5.2 YPC, with last year being the exception at 4.5
YPC. With an uncertain quarterback situation coming into the season, new HC
Mike Smith will ride Turner a lot. Expect 1,200 yards with 6 touchdowns.
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB,
Jaguars
Jones-Drew definitely had a disappointing 2007 fantasy
season in the yardage department, but he did manage to rush for nine scores.
Jones-Drew has been a TD machine, having scored 24 times in his first two
seasons. With Fred Taylor turning 32, expect Jones-Drew to take over in 2008
and rush for about 1,100 yards and 10+ TDs. His career 5.1 yards-per-carry
average demonstrates that he should have tremendous success once he gets those
starter-type carries. The guess here is he will get his upgraded workload this
coming season.
Robert Meachem, WR, Saints
Over the past two seasons, the Saints’ passing game has
produced 9,049 yards and 55 touchdowns. While Marques Colston gets a lot of
that action and Reggie Bush gets his fair share of receptions out of the
backfield, there is plenty of room for other receivers to put up good numbers.
Meachem was the team’s first-round pick in 2007 but lost the bulk of his rookie
campaign to a knee injury. With pre-season reports signaling Meachem has been
100% at mini-camps, he has impressed the coaching staff and could very easily
be the WR2 by the time September rolls around. In this explosive offense,
Meachem could emerge and you won't need to draft him before the 10th round.
Santonio Holmes, WR,
Steelers
Holmes comes into 2008 with a lot of things going his way.
He fits the third-year breakout mold and with Hines Ward entering his 11th NFL
season, the transition appears to be in motion. Ward will still be a factor but
Holmes will be Big Ben's money receiver in 2008. Look for 80+ catches for 1,250
receiving yards ands 10 touchdowns.
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