2K8 Rookies Print E-mail
Written by John Huss - Fantasycollegeblitz.com   
Wednesday, 06 August 2008

The NFL version of fantasy football is both exciting and competitive.  There are hundreds of sites online and seemingly just as many magazines in print dedicated to this pastime.  Of course, that is both a positive and a negative.  The upside is that anyone seeking knowledge can find the information needed to have a great season.  The downside is that your "enemies" have the same information.  The dedicated owner who wants nothing more than to destroy his league mates is always seeking an edge. 

Ideally, that's where the partnership between Fantasycollegeblitz.com and Rotojunkie comes into play.  At FCB, we cover the college game year round, providing fantasy insight to our viewers.  I was ecstatic when Jason asked us to provide our outlook on the Top 25 NFL rookies for 2008.  It was further evidence of RJ looking to give its readers that edge.  Sure, other sites are going to rank top rookies also.  Of course, the difference is they didn't track these kids thru their college years like FCB.  Who would your rather lean on for analysis on a college player...a writer who first heard the name Eddie Royal or Dustin Keller when they were called out during the NFL Draft...or the guys who analyzed them each year in college? 

Granted, I'm not saying we are better.  What I am saying is that to have the complete picture, it is important for owners to consider information from all angles.  Pair up our list with those that have a stronger understanding of the pro game (Rotojunkie!) and you are likely to find that key rookie in the late rounds of your fantasy draft.

Now onto the list:

Quarterback

This list is admittedly small.  The reality is that great college QBs do not have an immediate impact in the NFL.  The execs in the pros prefer to groom them for the more complex NFL game.  However, here are the names that could make a difference.

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons - This one comes as no surprise, as the only guys standing in his way are Joey Harrington and Chris Redman.  With Joey Harrington, standing is figurative in nature...as he spends most of his time picking himself off the ground than actually doing much QB work.  Redman was a nice story last year but really is nothing more than a stop gap.  Matt Ryan should easily have this job by mid-year, unless Coach Smith goes against conventional thought and actually gives him the job outright.

Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens QB situation seems to border on awful in most years, so it was no surprise when Baltimore drafted another one this past off season.  Kyle Boller has run out of lives and should not be starting this year (please, please spare us).  The only thing that will delay Flacco's debut is former Heisman winning QB Troy Smith.  Last year was his second in the NFL and he finally got a chance to start.  In the final two games, he was adequate, losing to Seattle but getting the win against Pittsburgh.  It is very likely that he will be given the first shot at the job and its up to him whether Flacco takes any snaps or not. 

Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins are hoping to bring Henne along slow and if things go as planned, he won't see the field in '08.  However with only John Beck and Josh McCown on the roster, it is likely that Henne finishes the season with a few starts under his belt.  Despite that, he should only warrant starts in the deepest of fantasy leagues.  Then again, I've learned long ago not to question the abilities of Bill Parcells in assessing talent. 

Brian Brohm, Green Bay Packers - Brohm should be higher on this list if not for the daily drama surrounding the Pack.  If it was simply Aaron Rodgers blocking his path, Brohm would right up there with Matt Ryan.  C'mon, Rodgers isn't even into preseason games and he is cracking under the pressure.  To have blasted the Packer faithful and then come crawling back with an apology is signs of a guy who isn't likely to hold onto this job.  

Running Back

This position is the complete opposite of QB...running backs have a history of being thrown into the game immediately.  The RB NFL life cycle is short lived, so teams constantly are in need of new blood to carry the ball.  This season, the list is quite deep and it won't surprise me if any of these backs has an Adrian Peterson impact for fantasy teams. 

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears - Should adapt well to the NFL, as he played in a pro-style offense.  He has the size to be the primary back.  Also, the Bears backfield is tenuous, with the recent cut of Cedric Benson.  Forte is a name that many fantasy owners will not recognize, since he played for a small CUSA school.  However, no one offers more immediate fantasy value than Forte.

Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions -  Ok, no one offers more value than Forte except maybe Kevin Smith.  He was able to carry the load and then some last season for UCF.  He was overlooked in the post season awards, he was overlooked in the draft but he should not be overlooked in your draft.  For many players, its about falling into the right situation.  Detroit needs a starting RB, they need a guy to make up for years of mediocrity.  Smith will be given that chance.  Plus, you can't ignore the pure irony of being on the Lions after chasing Barry Sanders for his NCAA records.  The negatives:  Smith almost stayed in college for one more year to work on his pass catching abilities and his blocking.  If he is unable to learn that quickly during camp, he will be lifted in passing situations.       

Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders - D-Mac will get every chance to be on the field early.  Al Davis made the flashy pick and Lane Kiffin better know whats good for him...play the guy loved by the man who signs the checks.  There are some other viable RB options on this team's current roster (Jordan, Fargas, Mike Bush), so McFadden will be in a job share situation.

Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans - My gut is telling me that Johnson is Rookie of the Year material as he will fit in not only as a change-of-pace RB but also as a kick returner and a WR (played there early in his East Carolina career).  He has nowhere to go but up...the Titans were last in the NFL with only nine receiving TDs .  When you run a 4.2/40, you get on the field quickly.  He is a good receiver out of the backfield, can run like the wind and will give the Titans a game changing weapon to use on offense and special teams. 

Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers – Stewart is the complete package and will be a fantasy star if he is given the chance to prove it.  Of course, he will also have to prove he can  stay healthy, something that was his nemesis at times in college.  The Panthers drafted Stewart to give him the chance to be the workhorse with D'Angelo Williams being a change of pace back.

Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers - Mendenhall bust onto the scene for Illinois last season, helping to take them to the Rose Bowl.  His overall numbers were very solid but he did fare poorly against some of the better Big 10 defenses.  We also wonder why it took him till his junior year to become the starter, considering that his predecessor at Illinois, Pierre Thomas Jr, was nothing special.  That aside, the nice thing for his pro development is that he will split time with fleet footed Willie Parker.  This will be Parker and the Bus part two...although let's see if Mendenhall is able to live up to the task of being the Bus.  

Ryan Torain, Denver Broncos – Obviously any RB drafted by the Broncos needs to be watched but Torain is more than just a RB on a roster.  At a minimum, Torain is a legitimate sleeper because he looks likely to get goal line carries.  However, he has all the upside of being a Broncos back if Shanahan decides to make him this year's Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns or Clinton Portis.  Don't forget - he will miss 6-8 weeks with an elbow fracture.

Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys - I like this pick now more than I did in April.  Jones will get to be the #2 RB again, this time running behind battering-ram Marion Barber.  However, like Chris Johnson mentioned above, he should also be involved on special teams and passing situations.  However, he likely is not someone you draft except as a handcuff for Barber.

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens – Rice is a must have handcuff to anyone who drafts McGahee as he would immediately be a viable option if/when McGahee gets hurt.  His style of play translates to the pro game.  The biggest concern on Rice is the number of carries (and the subsequent wear and tear) he had at Rutgers. 

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs - On another team or in a different situation, Charles would offer immediate fantasy value.  However, he is sitting behind Larry Johnson at KC.  However, do not discount Charles just because Larry Johnson is currently the feature back.  It wasn't long ago that fantasy owners where sitting on LJ, just waiting for Priest Holmes to go down.  Johnson is fragile and behind a rebuilding O-Line, so view Charles as the new trendy LJ in waiting type pick.
 

Wide Receiver

Despite athletic ability or blazing speed, rookie WRs never seem to fulfill fantasy hopes.  Last year, Calvin Johnson was a can't miss prospect.  Except for the fact that he missed (at least in fantasy terms).  Of course, some of the blame can be placed on usage and injury.  Of course, some rookies do offer spot start value...Dwayne Bowe was useful at times last season.  Here are the names that could be worth consideration.    

Devin Thomas, Washington Redskins - This one-year wonder from Michigan State has all the measurables that the NFL wants, and that the moribund Redskins offense desperately needs.  Redskins were #20 in yards per play (5.21, NE #1 at 6.35) last year, that will change with Thomas' speed, other offensive additions and QB Jason Campbell maturation.

Malcolm Kelly, Washington Redskins - The guy who could derail Thomas is the other WR drafted by the Skins.  At 6'4", Kelly offers the Skins a legit redzone target besides TE Chris Cooley.  He scored 10 TDs in 2006 and likely would have gotten more than 9 last year if he hadn't missed two games.  This is the reason teams have training camp, so keep on eye on who wins out between these two potential stars. 

Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers - Sure, Nelson would prefer to catch passes from Brett Favre instead of Aaron Rodgers.  He may still get his wish.  However, its important to note that he should immediately fit in as the Pack's #3 WR.  He possesses the skills to eventually move up the depth chart and if Rodgers is the QB, more conservative short passes may work in Nelson's favor (and make Greg Jennings less of an option).  The obvious risk here is the development of QB Aaron Rodgers, which has not gone well for any Jeff Tedford coached QBs.

James Hardy, Buffalo Bills - Fantasy College Blitz was home to one of the few analysts out there that had Hardy as the #1 WR prospect.  Fittingly, the Bills made sure he was the #2 WR selected, justifying our views on him.  Combined with the big-play ability of Lee Evans, expect Hardy to be a solid #2 WR right out of the gate.  The main problem is the carousel of Edwards-Losman at QB. 

Limas Sweed, Pittsburgh Steelers – Some experts had Sweed as the top rated receiver a month before the draft but injury issues caused him to fall to the end of the 2nd round.  This allowed the Steelers to make another steal in the draft.  Keep in mind that Sweed isn't going to put up huge yards his rookie season.  Big Ben is still going to look to Hines Ward and stretch the field with guys like Santonio Holmes.  However, at 6'4", he has the size to be the redzone threat that the Steelers current smallish WRs lack.   

Dexter Jackson, Tampa Bay Bucs - Tampa Bays recent history is littered with failed WRs taken in the draft.  Although Jackson could be next on that list, he does have a few things going for him.  He is a near clone to current Bucs star, Joey Galloway.  With pads and helmet on, you might not be able to tell the two apart.  The current Gruden system finds a way to get Galloway open.  Since Galloway is 36 years old, the team now won't miss a beat when he goes down with the inevitable injury this year.  Jackson lacks the size to be a featured WR, but could have some big games up his sleeve if he gets the PT.    

Jerome Simpson, Cincinnati Bengals - Small-school talent who will get plenty of reps in the Bengals pass-happy offense.  He has every chance to take the vacated spot left by troubled Chris Henry.

Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams - Besides the Rams, no one had Avery as their #1 wideout because of his inconsistent hands and lack of route refinement (hitches and flys were at least 80% of his routes).  He is a smallish WR and will need a lot of coaching to take advantage of his world-class speed.  He will likely have games where he does nothing, followed up by a game with spectacular TDs from over 50+ yards.  This will likely drive fantasy owners crazy since you won't know what he will produce in a given week. 

Eddie Royal, Denver Broncos – The Broncos don't have any proven receivers to start along side budding star Brandon Marshall.  The opportunity is there for Royal to grab significant playing time as a rookie.  Most owners will ignore him based on his lackluster college stats.  However, those same owners ignored Marshall before he collected 1,325 yards and 7 TDs last season.

Tight End

John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks -  Carlson comes out of Notre Dame, which groomed him for the pro-style game.  Seattle Coach Holgrem is known to throw to his TEs in the redzone.

Dustin Keller, NY Jets - This is a TE that was made to catch passes, a la Dallas Clark of the Colts.  The Jets will need to utilize every bit of talent on their roster to make up for last years debacle. 

 


 

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