180 Degree Span Print E-mail
Written by Jason Collette   
Sunday, 20 July 2008
Denard Span is now in his sixth year in the Twins organization. The 2003 first round draft choice out of the Tampa area has long been discussed as the replacement for Torii Hunter once Hunter departed. For most of the past six years, Span has failed to live up to that potential offensively as he struggled at the plate and spent a lot of time performing like a number nine hitter rather than an impact centerfielder hitting leadoff. Those struggles led the Twins to acquire Carlos Gomez as the centerpiece of the Johan Santana trade because of Gomez's offensive potential and impact on defense. Nearly four months through the 2008 season, Span is finally translating potential into results and has been a huge part of the Twins 22-8 record over their last 30 games which has once again catapulted them into the pennant race against all odds.


Span's minor league numbers until this season were rather unimpressive. You could typically book him for a .280 average, 20 steals, and a below average on base percentage. For someone with little power, 7% walk rates and .320 OBP's does not an everyday major league outfielder make in most cases. Span felt like he was having trouble seeing the ball so he had offseason lasik surgery before coming to camp and the results have been very helpful. As Span put it:

"I'd come back, and guys would ask me what the pitch I struck out on was, and I'd have no idea what I swung at." A trip to an eye doctor revealed he was nearsighted and had an astigmatism in his right eye.

While he is not making any more contact with the ball, he has doubled his career walk rate at both AAA and the majors this year. His 14% walk rate in AAA has carried over to the majors and at both levels, he has been able to post +.400 OBP's with the help of that walk rate. The other part of that high OBP comes from his batting average on balls in play. He is swinging at better pitches this year and his BABIP was .427 in AAA and .385 in the majors. Those numbers are rather lofty, but even a correction still makes his OBP higher than his career average. In AAA, he had a 22% line drive rate which translates into an expected BABIP (LD% + .120) of .340. However, in the majors, he has had an insane 33% line drive rate which gives him a .450 xBABIP. As good as Span has been in his 80 major league at bats this season, he could have done even better with a little more luck. Between lasik surgery and maturity at the plate, Span has turned himself into a potential leadoff threat. He puts the ball on the ground at a 50%+ rate and limits his flyballs to under 20% knowing that many of them are not going to go over the fence. His 14% walk rate and a 0.87 BB/K ratio are ideal skills for leading off but a 20 steals out of 31 attempts show there is still room for growth in the basestealing department.

I raise Span's leadoff potential because it befuddles me why the Twins are playing Carlos Gomez in that capacity. He has hit there nearly all year and has made some highlight reels but the stat line paints an ugly picture. Gomez is now hitting .251 on the season with a .278 OBP. To make matters worse, he has a 0.15 BB/K ratio thanks to fifteen walks and 97 strikeouts on the season. Gomez further compounds his problem with his swing; he has a 43/16/41 groundball/linedrive/flyball ratio. For someone with his speed, it is criminal his groundball rate is so low while his flyball rate is so high. He has hit .251 on the year with a .322 BABIP but the 16% linedrive rating gives him a xBABIP of .280 so the season could be worse than it already is.

The Twins have a real issue on their hands once Michael Cuddyer comes back into the fold. At that time, they'll have Delmon Young, Gomez, Span, Kubel, and Cuddyer for four spots in the lineup. Given how well Span has performed, it would be stunning to see the Twins send him back to AAA. Rather, given the Twins contention status, they could trade off an additional outfielder to gain help in the bullpen or improve the starting pitching depth. Given the Twins are 22-8 in their last 30 games, I probably come across as foolish for suggesting a change but flipping Span and Gomez in the current lineup could be more productive for the Twins.

There is a chance that Span is still not owned in your fantasy league. In my own local league, a guy had him on his farm roster from last year but inexplicably cut him in May at which case I pounced on him and was able to turn his success into a deal that brought me Curtis Granderson for the rest of this season. Span has been productive for a solid average, runs, and has chipped in a few steals to boot. His playing time could be diminished once Cuddyer comes back but it won't be because Span has not produced. He has finally started living up to the potential that made him a first round pick back in 2003 and could be a difference maker in both the Twins pennant chances and your fantasy pennant chances this second half.

 
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