Stuff has never been Pelfrey's problem - trusting that stuff has been his problem. Pelfrey can throw it as hard as 98mph, and has a changeup and a slider that he took on after scrapping the curve he had in college. He had good success in the minors but has been very inconsistent in his major league career. Last year was a prime example as he had a disappointing 5.57 ERA in 72.2 innings. On the plus side was a 2.0 G/F ratio and a 6.4 strikeouts per nine but a 1.67 WHIP, 4.5 walks per nine innings, and a 1.4 strikeout to walk ratio sealed his fate. If you looked at him month by month just on ERA, you might have been encouraged by the fact his ERA dropped each month throughout the seasons. Yet, his K/BB went from 2.0 in May to 1.2 to end the season when the Mets choked on their lead and missed the playoffs.

2008 saw a continued drop in his ERA for April but more loss of skills as walked as many as he struck out, gave up three homers, and had a 1.75 WHIP for the month. The only thing that saved him from a more disastrous ERA was that he straned 78% of his runners on base.  That skill of stranding runners abandoned him in May as it dropped to 65% and his ERA spiked to 5.35 in 33.2 innings pitched. He spiked his strikeout rate to 5.1, but his walk rate remained over 4.0. May was also an unusual month for him as he gave up more flyballs than groundballs - something Pelfrey has never done. He throws a very high percentage of groundballs so it was strange to see a 0.9 G/F for Pelfrey in May. From April to May, Pelfrey lost six straight contents and in that time span he had a 7.03 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, 3.9 strikeout rate, 5.1 walk rate, and batters were hitting .323 against him. 

After that losing streak, the Mets went on a west coast swing and Pelfrey pitched solid in three straight no decisions where he allowed a total of four runs in 21 innings against Arizona, Los Angeles, and San Diego. On the last game of that swing against Anaheim, Pelfrey picked up his first win since April 15th but it was an ugly win as he gave up eight runs and six hits in six innings as I sat in the right field bleachers witnessing it. One might also note this was the last game that Pelfrey pitched under the direction of pitching coach Rick Peterson. Peterson was fired that night and since then, Pelfrey has been lights out.

In the five starts Pelfrey has made since the dismissal of Rick Peterson, Pefrey has gone 5-0 with a 1.40 ERA. In 33 innings, he has posted a 1.06 WHIP, 3.1 walk rate, 7.3 strikeout rate, 2.4 strikeout to walk ratio, allowed zero homers thanks to a 2.4 G/F ratio, and has stranded 85% of his runners while holding batters to a .202 average. In this winning streak, his walk rate has fallen, his strikeout rate is higher than it has ever been in his career. Is it a coincidence that Pelfrey's numbers took off once Peterson was dismissed? Maybe, but Peterson also was the one who took away Pelfrey's curve for a slider but new pitching coach Rick Warthen has let him have his curve back. Pelfrey is also throwing a different pattern overall this year.  In 2007, Pelfrey was throwing 72% fastballs, 14% changeups, and 14% sliders. This season, he is throwing 80% fastballs, half as many changeups, and has added the curveball back these last five starts. His average fastball velocity was 92.4 last season while it shows up at 93 this year. 

As one astute BullPen member pointed out in one of our threads, this winning streak hasn't exactly come against murderer's row. Pelfrey has defeated Colorado, San Francisco, and St. Louis handily but none of those teams are doing well offensively. New York and Anaheim combined for ten runs against him in eleven innings yet Pelfrey still won, and he walked five in five innings at Colorado but stranded all of his runners.  However, these are the types of games Pelfrey has found a way to lose in the past and now he is winning them. Whether it is increasing the repertoire, the change in pitching coach, or the quality of the opponents, Mets fans are thrilled with the new Mike Pelfrey and fantasy owners should be as well. A high groundball rate plus improving strikeout rate and walk rate make for a strong speculation for second half success.