Catching Lightning in a Bottle Print E-mail
Written by Stephen Webb   
Wednesday, 04 June 2008

We all have our strategies.   Some of us go into our draft targeting specific players.   Some of us go in planning on going LIMA.  Some of us go in with the intention of getting the latest NL Stud to come over to the AL.   The best fantasy players develop a strategy and walk the fine line between sticking to their game plan 100% and making the necessary adjustments to not get caught zagging while the other owners weren’t really zigging in the first place.     One of my biggest draft day rules is the way that I approach filling my catching spots.

In general, I’m against spending high picks/big auction dollars on catching.   The exception to the rule for me coming into this year was Russell Martin.   I felt that the 20/20 potential at catcher was a good value in the late 3rd/early 4th round.  After a rocky start, it’s starting to look like I was right – even though I didn’t actually draft him in any of my leagues.

In auction leagues, forget about it.   I can’t tell you how many consecutive years I had Doug Mirabelli as my 2nd catcher in most of my leagues.

This year in my  AL Only league where we start 2 catchers the “top catchers” went for the following amounts:  VMart $28 (the same team spent $16 on Pierzynski), Mauer $20, Posada $20, Pudge $18, Johima $17.

I understand wanting to have more than a black hole at catcher, especially in Only leagues, but I can’t quite understand the strategy of spending more on players who will produce less for you simply because of position scarcity.   I always feel that money would be better spent on going that extra mile on other positions. 

I try and find a decent backup who won’t kill me in average and figure that everything else is gravy.

We decided to go with Kelly Shoppach and Mike Redmond.   I also liked the concept of ending up with the back-ups for both VMart and Mauer. 

Unfortunately, neither of those guys did much other than kill our BA.  However, we only spent $3 on them total and it allowed us to go the extra buck on several guys like Josh Hamilton, Torii Hunter & Carlos Gomez who have been keys to our success. 

We’re still sticking with Shoppach at the moment, but Redmond was sent away to pick up a waived Miguel Olivo who has performed for us at a great clip.  

My strategy will always be to load up the offense as much as possible with as much bang for my buck as possible while looking for that hot hitting back up catcher filling that can give your team some “free stats”.

Here are a few guys that probably weren’t drafted in mixed leagues that are putting up very nice stats at the C position this year:

  • Coste: 327, 6 HR, 17 RBI, 13 Runs  
  • Barajas: .303, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 14 Runs
  • Navarro: .338, 1 HR, 18 RBI, 13 Runs
  • Olivo: 293, 6 HR, 22 RBI, 14 Runs, 2 SB
  • Doumit: .350, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 21 Runs

As I write this article Barajas and Olivo are both available in one of my 15 team mixed leagues and both are out producing my Victor Martinez that I acquired in an April trade. 

Below are the stats of the guys that were listed as the Top 5 catchers coming in:

  • Martinez: .287, 0 HR, 18 RBI, 12 Runs
  • Martin: .315. 4 HR, 23 RBI, 28 Runs, 4 SB
  • Mauer: .324, 1 HR, 23 RBI, 35 Runs
  • McCann: .313, 10 HR, 33 RBI, 38 Runs,
  • Posada: .302, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 8 Runs

With the exception of Posada, who is injured, all of these Top 5 guys are performing well, but with the exception of Brian McCann, none of them are earning more than the catchers from the undrafted list.

As someone who has Victor and Doumit in the previously mentioned 15 team mixed league, I’m actually looking to deal Victor to someone who is looking to “buy low” and try and get an upgrade at another position and take my chances with the Doumit, Olivio and Coste’s of the world.    I believe there is more value in the other positions for exactly the same cost.

Obviously, you could point to similar situations at every position, but with catcher there is just so much risk involved due to the difficulty of projecting their playing time and production. The key of course is trying to determine which of these guys you should look to target.  Here is a quick buy/sell look at the players I’ve profiled so far.

Chris Coste:  Hold. The 33-year old rookie is performing like he did in the spring of 2006 before eventually coming up with the Phillies.   He isn’t likely to maintain his pace, but you also aren’t likely to get value worth replacing him as your 2nd catcher in an NL only league.   Buy his book and enjoy the production.

Rod Barajas:  Hold. Barajas has been performing very well since Greg Zaun went on the DL back on March 28th.    If he continues to play at this level we could at the very least see a platoon situation or perhaps one of these guys emerging as the DH.

Dioner Navarro:  Sell.  He’s been fun to watch lately, but his BABIP of .377 makes it a bit unlikely that he’s going to be able to maintain tremendous value down the stretch.    If you can find a taker (is Collette in your league?) then I highly recommend taking him before his BA plummets back to earth.

Ryan Doumit:   Buy.  I think Doumit has the highest probability of continuing that production.   His injury has potentially been a way to keep him fresh and he’s clearly the superior player to Paulino behind the plate.   He has a track record in the minors of hitting for good average and his power seems to be coming together.

Miguel Olivo:  Sell.  Olivo is in a good situation to continue with extensive playing time as he’s outplayed Buck to this point.    The concern with Olivo is sustaining the batting average.   It seems unlikely that he’s going to maintain his .293 average because his BABIP is .349 this season.    He may maintain some value in providing power numbers, but if anyone out there is willing to pay for him he’s worth looking into.  

Victor Martinez:  Sell.  Sell.  Sell.   The Indians finally confirmed what fantasy baseball players have suspected all year.   VMart is hurt.     A lot of his power comes from his strong lower half and he’s been battling a sore left hamstring.    I’m guessing that we haven’t heard the end of his injury concerns, but 0 HR and only 10 XBH in 174 innings this season paint the picture for me. 

Russell Martin: Hold.   Unfortunately, the buying period for Martin is over.  If you didn’t get him after his abysmal start then you probably aren’t going to get him.   I had him ranked as the #1 fantasy catcher and while he hasn’t quite lived up to that he is still top 3.

Joe Mauer:  You decide.   Honestly, Mauer is what he is.  A light on the power, batting average machine.   I prefer my players to give me something other than just .BA, especially considering the cost for Mauer.   If you have one of those Mauer lovers in your league – I’d recommend selling him.  

Jorge Posada:  I wasn’t too high on Posada coming into this season due to his age.   He had a fantastic 2007 season and I felt like he was overpriced in most leagues this year.    He’s coming back from an injury soon and there may be a buying potential if he struggles and the price is right from a team that isn’t in contention this year, but temper your expectation on a 36 year old catcher trying to get back into the swing mid season.

In addition to avoiding the high priced stud catchers another rule that I’m going to employ with catching from now on is to just avoid paying more than $5 on the hot rookie catchers.

Coming into the 2008 season I was huge on J.R. Towles of the Astros.  So much in fact that I bid a whopping $12 on him in the Rotojunkie staff league.   Not money well spent on a catcher that is making Astros fans long for the return of Brad Ausmus to the everyday catcher role. 

To date he has given me a wonderful .145, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 9 Runs.   Here is the kicker…0 steals.   0 steals and 0 attempts after being the guy that I thought for sure would be “Russell Martin-lite”.   That said – if someone has Towles for cheap (read: far less than $12) and you’re looking toward next year he might be worth a target.

Alas…there are growing pains at the C position in the big leagues and my team is suffering for it.    Could I have gone Geovany Soto and be looking at this from another perspective?   Yep, but he’s the exception, not the rule.

It's always dangerous to bank on catching lightning in a bottle, but if you are shrewd on your pick ups and trades you can probably build a strong enough offense so that all you need to target at catcher is guys who won't kill your BA and ride that offensive wave to the championship.

 
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