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We all have our strategies.
Some of us go into our draft targeting specific players. Some of us go in planning on going LIMA. Some of us go in with the intention of
getting the latest NL Stud to come over to the AL.
The best fantasy players develop a strategy and walk the fine line
between sticking to their game plan 100% and making the necessary adjustments
to not get caught zagging while the other owners weren’t really zigging in the
first place. One of my biggest draft
day rules is the way that I approach filling my catching spots.
In general, I’m against spending high picks/big auction
dollars on catching. The exception to
the rule for me coming into this year was Russell Martin. I felt that the 20/20 potential at catcher
was a good value in the late 3rd/early 4th round. After a rocky start, it’s starting to look
like I was right – even though I didn’t actually draft him in any of my
leagues.
In auction leagues, forget about it. I can’t tell you how many consecutive years
I had Doug Mirabelli as my 2nd catcher in most of my leagues.
This year in my AL Only league where we
start 2 catchers the “top catchers” went for the following amounts: VMart $28 (the same team spent $16 on
Pierzynski), Mauer $20, Posada $20, Pudge $18, Johima $17.
I understand wanting to have more than a black hole at
catcher, especially in Only leagues, but I can’t quite understand the strategy
of spending more on players who will produce less for you simply because of
position scarcity. I always feel that
money would be better spent on going that extra mile on other positions.
I try and find a decent backup who won’t kill me in average
and figure that everything else is gravy.
We decided to go with Kelly Shoppach and Mike Redmond. I also liked the concept of ending up with
the back-ups for both VMart and Mauer.
Unfortunately, neither of those guys did much other than
kill our BA. However, we only spent $3
on them total and it allowed us to go the extra buck on several guys like Josh
Hamilton, Torii Hunter & Carlos Gomez who have been keys to our
success.
We’re still sticking with Shoppach at the moment, but Redmond was sent away to
pick up a waived Miguel Olivo who has performed for us at a great clip.
My strategy will always be to load up the offense as much as
possible with as much bang for my buck as possible while looking for that hot hitting
back up catcher filling that can give your team some “free stats”.
Here are a few guys that probably weren’t drafted in mixed
leagues that are putting up very nice stats at the C position this year:
- Coste: 327, 6 HR,
17 RBI, 13 Runs
- Barajas: .303, 5
HR, 19 RBI, 14 Runs
-
Navarro: .338, 1
HR, 18 RBI, 13 Runs
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Olivo: 293, 6 HR,
22 RBI, 14 Runs, 2 SB
-
Doumit: .350, 5
HR, 15 RBI, 21 Runs
As I write this article Barajas and Olivo are both available
in one of my 15 team mixed leagues and both are out producing my Victor
Martinez that I acquired in an April trade.
Below are the stats of the guys that were listed as the Top
5 catchers coming in:
- Martinez: .287, 0 HR, 18 RBI, 12 Runs
-
Martin: .315. 4
HR, 23 RBI, 28 Runs, 4 SB
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Mauer: .324, 1
HR, 23 RBI, 35 Runs
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McCann: .313, 10
HR, 33 RBI, 38 Runs,
-
Posada: .302, 1
HR, 11 RBI, 8 Runs
With the exception of Posada, who is injured, all of these Top 5 guys are
performing well, but with the exception of Brian McCann, none of them are
earning more than the catchers from the undrafted list.
As someone who has Victor and Doumit in the previously
mentioned 15 team mixed league, I’m actually looking to deal Victor to someone
who is looking to “buy low” and try and get an upgrade at another position and
take my chances with the Doumit, Olivio and Coste’s of the world. I believe there is more value in the other
positions for exactly the same cost.
Obviously, you could point to similar situations at every
position, but with catcher there is just so much risk involved due to the
difficulty of projecting their playing time and production. The key of course
is trying to determine which of these guys you should look to target. Here is a quick buy/sell look at the players
I’ve profiled so far.
Chris Coste: Hold.
The 33-year old rookie is performing like he did in the spring of 2006
before eventually coming up with the Phillies.
He isn’t likely to maintain his pace, but you also aren’t likely to get
value worth replacing him as your 2nd catcher in an NL only
league. Buy his book and enjoy the
production.
Rod Barajas: Hold. Barajas has been performing very
well since Greg Zaun went on the DL back on March 28th. If he continues to play at this level we
could at the very least see a platoon situation or perhaps one of these guys
emerging as the DH.
Dioner Navarro: Sell.
He’s been fun to watch lately, but his BABIP of .377 makes it a bit
unlikely that he’s going to be able to maintain tremendous value down the
stretch. If you can find a taker (is
Collette in your league?) then I highly recommend taking him before his BA
plummets back to earth.
Ryan Doumit: Buy.
I think Doumit has the highest probability of continuing that
production. His injury has potentially
been a way to keep him fresh and he’s clearly the superior player to Paulino
behind the plate. He has a track record
in the minors of hitting for good average and his power seems to be coming
together.
Miguel Olivo: Sell.
Olivo is in a good situation to continue with extensive playing time as
he’s outplayed Buck to this point. The
concern with Olivo is sustaining the batting average. It seems unlikely that he’s going to
maintain his .293 average because his BABIP is .349 this season. He may maintain some value in providing
power numbers, but if anyone out there is willing to pay for him he’s worth
looking into.
Victor Martinez: Sell.
Sell. Sell. The Indians finally confirmed what fantasy
baseball players have suspected all year.
VMart is hurt. A lot of his
power comes from his strong lower half and he’s been battling a sore left
hamstring. I’m guessing that we
haven’t heard the end of his injury concerns, but 0 HR and only 10 XBH in 174
innings this season paint the picture for me.
Russell Martin: Hold. Unfortunately, the buying period for Martin
is over. If you didn’t get him after his
abysmal start then you probably aren’t going to get him. I had him ranked as the #1 fantasy catcher
and while he hasn’t quite lived up to that he is still top 3.
Joe Mauer: You decide.
Honestly, Mauer is what he is. A
light on the power, batting average machine.
I prefer my players to give me something other than just .BA, especially
considering the cost for Mauer. If you
have one of those Mauer lovers in your league – I’d recommend selling him.
Jorge Posada: I wasn’t too high on Posada coming into
this season due to his age. He had a
fantastic 2007 season and I felt like he was overpriced in most leagues this
year. He’s coming back from an injury
soon and there may be a buying potential if he struggles and the price is right
from a team that isn’t in contention this year, but temper your expectation on
a 36 year old catcher trying to get back into the swing mid season.
In addition to avoiding the high priced stud catchers another
rule that I’m going to employ with catching from now on is to just avoid paying
more than $5 on the hot rookie catchers.
Coming into the 2008 season I was huge on J.R. Towles of the
Astros. So much in fact that I bid a
whopping $12 on him in the Rotojunkie staff league. Not money well spent on a catcher that is making
Astros fans long for the return of Brad Ausmus to the everyday catcher role.
To date he has given me a wonderful .145, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 9
Runs. Here is the kicker…0 steals. 0 steals and 0 attempts after being the guy
that I thought for sure would be “Russell Martin-lite”. That said – if someone has Towles for cheap
(read: far less than $12) and you’re looking toward next year he might be worth
a target.
Alas…there are growing pains at the C position in the big
leagues and my team is suffering for it.
Could I have gone Geovany Soto and be looking at this from another
perspective? Yep, but he’s the
exception, not the rule.
It's always dangerous to bank on catching lightning in a bottle, but if you are shrewd on your pick ups and trades you can probably build a strong enough offense so that all you need to target at catcher is guys who won't kill your BA and ride that offensive wave to the championship.
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